Commodity Market Report
Global aluminium long-term outlook Q3 2020
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
The aluminium metal market service long term outlook (LTO) is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals out to 2040. We maintain our view that the market is set to accumulate a significant surplus out to 2024. China demand growth looks better – following a supply led V-shaped recovery. In contrast, ROW consumption has weakened further during 2020. Smelter supply continues to grow, albeit modestly. High stock accumulation and higher scrap usage means there is little requirement for investment in new smelting capacity over the long-term. Future demand growth will be increasingly met by recycled aluminium. Our In-Focus section explores a path to a greener aluminium industry. Much will depend on the willingness producers, consumers and governments to accelerate the use of renewable energy for metal production and increase the use of scrap throughout the aluminium value chain.
Table of contents
-
Aluminium market outlook
- Long-run aluminium prices
-
Alumina market outlook
- Long-run alumina prices
-
Bauxite market outlook
- Main risks around our base case aluminium market outlook
- Scenario analysis
- A path to greener aluminium
- Summary
- Changes to consumption forecasts since Q2 2020
-
Forecasts by region
- China
- Asia ex-China
- Europe
- North America
- United States
- Project Classification
- Supply disruptions
- Market-driven adjustment
-
Smelter production and capacity
- Summary
- Global smelter production and capacity 2019-2040
- Asia
- China
- India
- Indonesia
- Malaysia
- Europe
- Russia and Caspian
- Oceania
-
Refinery production and capacity
- Summary
- Global refinery production and capacity 2019-2040
- Africa
- Asia
- India
- Indonesia
- China
- Europe
-
Bauxite production
- Africa
- Asia (excl. China)
- China
- Latin America and the Caribbean
- Oceania
- Forecasting methodology
- Rationale, risks and IRR methodology
- Assumptions used to construct incentive prices
- Risks around the incentive price
-
Bauxite pricing
- Global smelter production and capability 2019-2040
- Global refinery production and capability 2019-2040
- Global bauxite production, demand and regional balances 2019-2040
- Regional demand tables
Tables and charts
This report includes 83 images and tables including:
- Global aluminium balance and prices
- Primary aluminium demand and capacity, 2010-2040, Mtpa
- Stock days of consumption and price
- Global supply-demand balance
- Metal prices, cash costs and aluminium stocks
- Global alumina balance and prices
- Stock days and price
- Smelter grade alumina balance
- Alumina demand and capacity (95% utilisation), 2010-2040, Mtpa
- Global seaborne bauxite balance and prices
- Seaborne supply and demand, Mt (dry)
- Quality-adjusted weighted average fob prices for low temperature bauxite, 2020-2040
- Time charter rates, 2010-2030, US$/day
- Global metallurgical bauxite supply (Mt)
- Global metallurgical bauxite requirement (Mt)
- Global primary aluminium consumption by region 2019-2024, 2025, 2030, 2040 (Mt)
- China primary aluminium consumption 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (Mt)
- African primary aluminium consumption 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- Asian primary aluminium consumption 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- European primary aluminium consumption 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- Latin America primary aluminium consumption 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- Middle East primary aluminium consumption 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- North America primary aluminium consumption 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- Russia primary aluminium consumption 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- Aluminium incentive price, long run operating cost and capital intensity, US$/t
- Incentive price set at US$2100/t (real 2020 $)
- Average LME aluminium cash prices, 1991-2040 and incentive price (US$/t)
- Alumina incentive price, long run operating cost and capital intensity, US$/t
- Alumina incentive price set at US$350/t (real 2020 $)
- Spot alumina prices, 1991-2040
- Base, high and low price scenarios (real US$/t)
- Global smelting power mix, 1990-2020
- Scope 1 & 2 carbon intensity, 1990-2020
- Global primary aluminium consumption (Mt)
- Changes to primary aluminium consumption since Q2 2020 (Mt)
- Global primary consumption set to peak at 78 Mt in 2029
- Greater scrap collection, processing and use will support future secondary consumption
- Main changes to primary aluminium consumption forecast Q2 2020 vs Q3 2020 (kt)
- Rising secondary offtake will support total aluminium consumption per capita at 35 kg by 2040
- Total demand split by end-use sectors
- Total consumption by product form
- Non-residential construction to provide support to aluminium consumption to 2026
- European capacity and production of aluminium automotive sheet
- US consumption per end-use sector
- US capacity and production of aluminium automotive sheet
- Supply and demand for high-silicon scrap in the automotive sector
- Global capacity utilisation
- Global aluminium production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (Mt)
- China greenfield aluminium projects
- Global alumina production 2019-2023, 2025, 2035 and 2040 (Mt)
- Aditya alumina refinery capital expenditure
- New southern-based projects, ktpa
- Guinea bauxite production expansion by mine/project status, 2010-2040
- Provincial distribution of China’s imported bauxite demand, 2019-2040 (Mt)
- Global aluminium production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (Mt)
- Africa aluminium production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- North America aluminium production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- Latin America aluminium production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- Middle East aluminium production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- Asia aluminium production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- Europe aluminium production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- Russia and Caspian aluminium production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- Oceania aluminium production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- Global alumina production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (Mt)
- Africa alumina production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- North America alumina production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- Latin America alumina production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- Middle East alumina production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- Asia alumina production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- Europe alumina production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- Russia and Caspian alumina production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- Oceania alumina production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- Global metallurgical bauxite supply, 2019-2024, 2025, 2030, 2040 (Mt)
- Global metallurgical bauxite demand, 2019-2024, 2025, 2030, 2040 (Mt)
- Africa bauxite supply, demand and balance, 2019-2024, 2025, 2030, 2040 (Mt)
- North America bauxite supply, demand and regional balance, 2019-2024, 2025, 2030, 2040 (Mt)
- Latin America bauxite supply, demand and regional balance, 2019-2024, 2025, 2030, 2040 (Mt)
- Middle East bauxite supply, demand and regional balance, 2019-2024, 2025, 2030, 2040 (Mt)
- Asia bauxite supply, demand and regional balance, 2019-2024, 2025, 2030, 2040 (Mt)
- Europe bauxite supply, demand and regional balance, 2019-2024, 2025, 2030, 2040 (Mt)
- Russia and Caspian bauxite supply, demand and regional balance, 2019-2024, 2025, 2030, 2040 (Mt)
- Oceania bauxite supply, demand and regional balance, 2019-2024, 2025, 2030, 2040 (Mt)
- Global seaborne bauxite balance and prices (Mt)
What's included
This report contains:
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