Commodity Market Report

Southern Cone gas and power short-term outlook: September 2023

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The startup of Nestor Kirchner pipeline will reduce Argentina gas imports requirements, enabling new exports opportunities with Chile. Its domestic production will average satisfactory 126 Mcmd in 2024, representing 12% growth y-o-y. Additionally, favorable water inflows in September eased the thermal dispatch and benefited water reservoir levels. In Brazil, reservoir levels decreased slightly in September, however hydro conditions remains higher than the last 20 year range, granting a forecast of inflexibility as a main driver in 2024. Despite of this scenario, LNG imports will increase next year, pushed by contracts with LDCs and industries. Petrobras signed 4 long term GSAs with distributors this month, strengthening its presence in the gas supply nationwide.

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