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The impact of a Russia-Ukraine gas transit outage on Europe

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Report summary

There is an increased risk that deliveries of Russia gas to Europe via Ukraine could be disrupted. How would a prolonged disruption impact European gas flows and pricing and what regions would be most affected? To investigate this we provide the results of a detailed analysis of a 2 month disruption to Russia's Ukrainian gas transit route using our proprietary Global Gas Model.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    The impact of a Russia-Ukraine gas transit outage on Europe

    PDF 751.49 KB

  • Document

    Ukraine Six Month Transit Outage.pdf

    PDF 1.34 MB

  • Document

    The impact of a Russia-Ukraine gas transit outage on Europe

    ZIP 1.97 MB

Table of contents

  • Background
    • Russia-Ukraine crisis - 2009 versus 2014
  • Supply disruption analysis - two months without Ukrainian transit capacity
  • Implications for Europe's regional gas flows
  • Implications for European prices
  • Conclusions

Tables and charts

This report includes 5 images and tables including:

Images

  • Summary of change in European gas flows - Reference Case vs Two Month Disruption Case
  • The impact of a Russia-Ukraine gas transit outage on Europe: Image 3
  • Europe gas market impact; shown by region
  • The impact of a Russia-Ukraine gas transit outage on Europe: Image 1

Tables

  • The impact of a Russia-Ukraine gas transit outage on Europe: Table 1

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