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The impact of a Russia-Ukraine gas transit outage on Europe


The impact of a Russia-Ukraine gas transit outage on Europe

Report summary

There is an increased risk that deliveries of Russia gas to Europe via Ukraine could be disrupted. How would a prolonged disruption impact European gas flows and pricing and what regions would be most affected? To investigate this we provide the results of a detailed analysis of a 2 month disruption to Russia's Ukrainian gas transit route using our proprietary Global Gas Model.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • The impact of a Russia-Ukraine gas transit outage on Europe PDF - 751.49 KB 7 Pages, 1 Tables, 4 Figures
  • Ukraine Six Month Transit Outage.pdf PDF - 1.34 MB

Description

This Gas Markets Insight report highlights the key issues surrounding this topic, and draws out the implications for those involved.

For participants, suppliers and advisors who want to look at the trends, risks and issues surrounding this topic, this report gives you an expert point of view to help inform your decision making.

We provide detailed supply, demand and price forecasts based on our integrated upstream, power, coal and LNG research. Our regional gas experts are based in the markets they analyse, providing comprehensive analyses of regional and global gas markets.

If you want to understand complex gas market dynamics and plan for the future, Wood Mackenzie is the premier resource to help you gain a clear, competitive advantage.

  • Background
  • Europe has been here before
    • Russia-Ukraine crisis - 2009 versus 2014
  • Supply disruption analysis - two months without Ukrainian transit capacity
  • Implications for Europe's regional gas flows
  • Implications for European prices
  • Conclusions

In this report there are 5 tables or charts, including:

  • Background
  • Europe has been here before
    • The impact of a Russia-Ukraine gas transit outage on Europe: Table 1
    • The impact of a Russia-Ukraine gas transit outage on Europe: Image 1
  • Supply disruption analysis - two months without Ukrainian transit capacity
    • Summary of change in European gas flows - Reference Case vs Two Month Disruption Case
  • Implications for Europe's regional gas flows
    • The impact of a Russia-Ukraine gas transit outage on Europe: Image 3
    • Europe gas market impact; shown by region
  • Implications for European prices
  • Conclusions
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