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The impact of Russia's gas export strategy on US LNG

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09 March 2016

The impact of Russia's gas export strategy on US LNG

Report summary

With European LNG imports, including from the US, set to grow over the next 5 years, there is much speculation about Russia’s likely response. Will Russia’s gas strategy mimic that of Saudi Arabia’s oil strategy, will it seek to retain market share in Europe, pushing European gas prices to levels that force the shut-in of US LNG exports? Using Wood Mackenzie’s Global Gas Model, we have analysed the key factors that will influence US LNG export utilisation, including Russia’s export strategy.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • An oversupplied global gas market
    • Europe: the battleground for Russian gas and US LNG
    • Methodology
      • Russian contracts supply and pricing
      • Determinants and cases
        • Determinants
        • Sensitivity results
          • Outcomes
            • High oil price
            • Low Oil Price
            • Discussion
              • US LNG exports
              • Russia
                • Russia pipe capacity and delivered cost
                • Europe market share
                • Profitability
              • Conclusions

Tables and charts

This report includes 25 images and tables including:

  • Global and European market flow changes 2015 to 2020 (Wood Mackenzie Base Case H2 2015)
  • Russia Pipe Imports to Europe (H2 2015 Wood Mackenzie Base Case)
  • LNG Imports to Europe (H2 2015 Wood Mackenzie Base Case)
  • Russia contract volumes and pricing
  • Russia contract volumes to Europe and spare supply capacity
  • Pricing sensitivity matrix
  • Pricing sensitivity results 2017 to 2020
  • High oil price
  • Europe Market flows 2020: High oil price
  • Europe Market Flows 2015 vs 2020: High oil price
  • NBP Price Outlook annual: High oil price
  • NBP Price Outlook monthly: High oil price
  • Low oil price
  • Europe Market flows 2020: Low oil price
  • The impact of Russia's gas export strategy on US LNG: Image 11
  • NBP price outlook annual: Low oil price
  • NBP Price outlook monthly: Low oil price
  • US LNG Flows: High oil price
  • US LNG Flows: Low oil price
  • Russia pipe export capacity vs sensitivity flows 2020
  • Russia delivered cost (2020)
  • Russia Europe market share: High oil price
  • Russia Europe market share: Low oil price
  • European Exports - Russia Profit (2017-2020): High oil price
  • European Exports - Russia Profit (2017-2020): Low oil price

What's included

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