Commodity Market Report

China LNG long-term outlook 2020

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08 June 2020

China LNG long-term outlook 2020

Report summary

China's LNG imports grew by 12% year-on-year to 60.3 Mt in 2019. While it was a deceleration from 2018, it firmed the country's position as the second-largest LNG importer after Japan. The coronavirus outbreak and China's strict containment measures have dampened economic growth and energy demand. LNG demand's annual growth is expected to slow to 3% in 2020. Near-term demand will be affected by the lingering effects but we expect piped imports to be more affected than LNG. Despite short-term turbulence, we don't see the government making a U-turn in its determination to clean up China's energy mix. In the long term, gas demand will benefit from tougher environmental standards, less supply constraints and increased user affordability. We expect China's LNG demand to reach 81 Mt by 2025 and 124 Mt by 2040.

Table of contents

  • Historical LNG imports
  • Imports by company
  • LNG trucking
  • Spot versus contracted
  • Seasonal profile
    • Short term (2020)
    • Medium term (2021-2023)
    • Long term (post-2023)
  • CNOOC and its joint ventures
  • PetroChina
  • Sinopec
  • Non-NOC entrants in infrastructure
  • China Oil & Gas Piping Network Corporation
  • Regasification tariffs
  • LNG terminal development
  • Third-party access
  • Gas sector reform
  • Energy and environmental policy

Tables and charts

This report includes 13 images and tables including:

  • LNG imports by terminal
  • LNG Seasonality
  • Contracted versus uncontracted LNG import outlook (H1 2020 preliminary)
  • LNG contracts signed since 2016
  • Contract pricing trend
  • Contract by indexation type
  • Contracted LNG supply versus regasification capacity
  • Contracted LNG supply position by buyer
  • LNG infrastructure
  • 2025 LNG receiving capacity outlook by company
  • Terminal nominal capacity versus monthly imports

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    china_lng_long-term_outlook_2020.xlsx

    XLSX 231.19 KB

  • Document

    China LNG long-term outlook 2020

    PDF 1.32 MB