Commodity Market Report

Global LNG shipping long-term outlook 2019

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01 August 2019

Global LNG shipping long-term outlook 2019

Report summary

Demand for LNG shipping is growing rapidly as a wave of new plants in Australia, Russia and the USA come on-line. An ample orderbook has seen the supply of LNG ships, for the most part, keep pace with increasing demand. Recent LNG liquefaction plant FID decisions will create another wave of vessel demand in the mid 2020s. Our view is that enough ships have already been ordered to serve the current wave of new LNG supply, but new ships will have to be ordered to meet demand from 2023 onwards. By 2025 we forecast 116 new ships will need to be ordered to meet demand, rising to 500 by 2035. LNG will remain one of the fastest growing sectors of the commercial shipping fleet but ship owners and investors, as ever, need to be careful with timing orders and not to allow the supply of LNG ships to grow even faster than the demand for them.

Table of contents

  • Forecast trade
  • Procuring a new LNG Ship
  • Shipyard berth availability and current orders
  • Inactive fleet
  • Scrapping

Tables and charts

This report includes 17 images and tables including:

  • Modelled forecast LNG trade (bcm)
  • Modelled forecast LNG trade ('000 bcm-miles)
  • LNG shipping requirement by project
  • Estimated shipping requirement for projects under construction (number of 174,000 m³ equivalent vessels)
  • LNG vessels required to export 4.5 mmtpa to selected destinations by export region
  • LNG ship requirement for US Gulf exports
  • LNG fleet development by size range (current fleet and orderbook)
  • LNG shipyards and delivery availability
  • LNG shipyards committed output and delivery availability
  • LNG ships ordered - charter expiry schedule (17,500 m³+ ships)
  • Existing LNG fleet - charter expiry schedule (100,000 m³+ ships)
  • Existing LNG fleet - charter expiry schedule (17,500-100,000 m³ ships)
  • Historic and forecast LNG vessel scrapping
  • Scrapping potential of current LNG fleet
  • LNG fleet capacity v bcm-mile demand
  • Bcm-mile demand v theoretical maximum
  • Forecast LNG shipping supply (17,500m3 +)

What's included

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