Insight
Global LNG supply tracker Q2 2018: flat Pacific supply supports tight summer market
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Global LNG output is expected to increase to 324 Mt (+9%) in 2018. However as outlined last quarter, growth is unevenly distributed - it will be concentrated in the winter. In particular, Pacific supply is flat until Q4 2018, which is currently contributing to a tighter summer market and supporting Asian price differentials with Europe. Wheatstone T2 seems delayed to June. We maintain a view that Prelude FLNG and Ichthys will start ramping up over Q4 2018. The seasonal growth story is similar in the Atlantic and Middle East. With the exception of Cove Point, currently ramping up exports, and Cameroon GoFLNG, most new facilities will ramp-up over the winter. LNG capacity growth will accelerate again in 2019. New facilities are expected to add substantial production mainly from the second half of the year. We have delayed Freeport to Q2 2019 but there is further downside risk to timing.
Table of contents
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Highlights
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Downside risks to our view
- Existing producers
- New projects
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Upside risks to our view
- Existing projects
- New projects
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Asia-Pacific LNG supply
- Australia
- Brunei
- Indonesia
- Malaysia
- PNG
- Russia East
- Peru
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Key changes to Middle East and North Africa (MENA) supply
- Oman
- Qatar
- UAE
- Yemen
- Egypt
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Key changes to Atlantic supply
- Russia West
- Nigeria
- Algeria
- Cameroon
- Equatorial Guinea
- Angola
- Trinidad
- USA
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Downside risks to our view
Tables and charts
This report includes 14 images and tables including:
- Monthly global FOB supply (annualised)
- Global LNG supply (mmtpa annualised)
- Global LNG supply tracker Q2 2018: flat Pacific supply supports tight summer market: Image 2
- Global LNG supply tracker Q2 2018: flat Pacific supply supports tight summer market: Image 3
- Global LNG supply tracker Q2 2018: flat Pacific supply supports tight summer market: Image 4
- Global LNG supply and y-o-y changes
- Recent Project start-ups
- Global LNG supply tracker Q2 2018: flat Pacific supply supports tight summer market: Table 3
- Global LNG supply tracker Q2 2018: flat Pacific supply supports tight summer market: Image 6
- Global LNG supply tracker Q2 2018: flat Pacific supply supports tight summer market: Image 7
- Global LNG supply tracker Q2 2018: flat Pacific supply supports tight summer market: Image 8
- Global LNG supply tracker Q2 2018: flat Pacific supply supports tight summer market: Image 9
- Global LNG supply tracker Q2 2018: flat Pacific supply supports tight summer market: Image 10
- Global LNG supply tracker Q2 2018: flat Pacific supply supports tight summer market: Image 11
What's included
This report contains:
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