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China economic focus June 2023: local government debt at risk
Report summary
China’s public debt level is at an alarming stage, with total government debt reaching 96% in 2022. The risks of a debt crisis vary across provinces. Shaanxi, Guangxi, Qinghai, Yunnan, Sichuan, Jilin, Gansu and Guizhou provinces are at the top of the troubling list. China will try to manage a slow deleveraging process to avoid a debt crisis. However, it will lead to a material slowdown in infrastructure investment and associated commodity demand.
Table of contents
- Highlights
- Why not stimulate infrastructure?
- How large is local government debt?
- What are the solutions?
- Appendix
Tables and charts
This report includes 13 images and tables including:
- Country comparison of public debt level
- Local government debt by provinces
- Liability ratio of official debt
- The interest rates of urban investment bonds
- Wood Mackenzie's proprietary China data
- Manufacturing PMI
- Industrial production and retail sales
- Trade
- Inflation
- Property
- Investment
- Money supply (M2)
- Required reserve ratio
What's included
This report contains:
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