Insight
China economic focus May 2022: a downside scenario
Report summary
Under the ‘dynamic clearing’ policy, new Covid-19 outbreaks in H2 2022 and 2023 could further depress the Chinese economy. In May’s China Economic Focus, we outline our downside scenario which shows prolonged, or new lockdowns could slow economic growth to 4% in 2022. In the downside scenario, consumption and industrial production could face a slower recovery compared to post-lockdown in 2020. Despite the government efforts to stimulate infrastructure and property, consumer confidence and supply chain disruption may limit its effectiveness.
Table of contents
- Highlights
- Weak consumer confidence leads to economic downturn
- Restricted transportation brings additional pressure on industrial production
- Will investment become the saving grace?
- Property boom under relaxed housing policy?
- Appendix
Tables and charts
This report includes 13 images and tables including:
- Quarterly GDP growth for base case and downside scenarios
- Recovery of retail sales could be slower than in 2020
- The impact on transportation lasts longer than the outbreaks
- Industrial production growth will remain suboptimal under downside scenario
- Wood Mackenzie’s proprietary China data
- Manufacturing PMI
- Trade
- Property
- Money supply (M2)
- IP and retail sales
- Inflation
- Investment
- Required reserve ratio
What's included
This report contains:
Other reports you may be interested in
25 May 2023
China economic focus May 2023: a recovery without inflation
Insight
China economic focus May 2023: a recovery without inflation
Inflation will remain low in 2023 despite 5.7% GDP growth.
$95026 April 2023
China economic focus April 2023: a lacklustre recovery for industry
Insight
China economic focus April 2023: a lacklustre recovery for industry
Commodity demand hit by a lacklustre recovery for the industry in Q1
$95031 May 2023
Iron ore markets short-term outlook May 2023
Commodity Market Report
Iron ore markets short-term outlook May 2023
Iron ore price suffers from patchy economic recovery
$5,000
