China economic focus May 2022: a downside scenario

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Under the ‘dynamic clearing’ policy, new Covid-19 outbreaks in H2 2022 and 2023 could further depress the Chinese economy. In May’s China Economic Focus, we outline our downside scenario which shows prolonged, or new lockdowns could slow economic growth to 4% in 2022. In the downside scenario, consumption and industrial production could face a slower recovery compared to post-lockdown in 2020. Despite the government efforts to stimulate infrastructure and property, consumer confidence and supply chain disruption may limit its effectiveness.

Table of contents

  • Highlights
  • Weak consumer confidence leads to economic downturn
  • Restricted transportation brings additional pressure on industrial production
  • Will investment become the saving grace?
  • Property boom under relaxed housing policy?
  • Appendix

Tables and charts

This report includes 13 images and tables including:

  • Quarterly GDP growth for base case and downside scenarios
  • Recovery of retail sales could be slower than in 2020
  • The impact on transportation lasts longer than the outbreaks
  • Industrial production growth will remain suboptimal under downside scenario
  • Wood Mackenzie’s proprietary China data
  • Manufacturing PMI
  • Trade
  • Property
  • Money supply (M2)
  • IP and retail sales
  • Inflation
  • Investment
  • Required reserve ratio

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    China economic focus May 2022: a downside scenario

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