China economic focus November 2021: potential disruption ahead
We forecast the Chinese economy to slow down from 8.1% GDP growth in 2021 to 5.4% in 2022. A few disruptions to economic activity will contribute to the slower growth. Tightening of pollution controls for the Winter Olympics will impact both pollution-intensive industries and on-road logistics in northern provinces. Reoccurring Covid lockdowns and China’s zero tolerance of new cases will depress mobility and consumption. The pressure of the “dual controls” energy policy will return towards the end of coming quarters and potentially bring new rounds of power rationing.