China economic focus November 2021: potential disruption ahead

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We forecast the Chinese economy to slow down from 8.1% GDP growth in 2021 to 5.4% in 2022. A few disruptions to economic activity will contribute to the slower growth. Tightening of pollution controls for the Winter Olympics will impact both pollution-intensive industries and on-road logistics in northern provinces. Reoccurring Covid lockdowns and China’s zero tolerance of new cases will depress mobility and consumption. The pressure of the “dual controls” energy policy will return towards the end of coming quarters and potentially bring new rounds of power rationing.

Table of contents

  • Highlights
  • Pollution controls tighten for the Winter Olympics
  • Zero-tolerance response to new Covid cases
  • The long-lasting pressure of dual controls
  • Appendix

Tables and charts

This report includes 11 images and tables including:

  • Highway traffic falls after Covid outbreaks
  • Dual controls tracking table for H1 2021
  • Wood Mackenzie's proprietary China data
  • Manufacturing PMI
  • IP and retail sales
  • Trade
  • Inflation
  • Property
  • Investment
  • Money supply (M2)
  • Required reserve ratio

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    China economic focus November 2021: potential disruption ahead

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