China economic focus October 2023: a low case for 2024

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China's GDP growth could slow to 3.9% in 2024, according to our analysis of a low-case scenario. This scenario assumes flat property sales and new starts, sluggish private investment and weak consumer confidence. The property recession and energy transition generate varied momentum for metals in the low case. Steel demand could be impacted the most, while the additional downward pressure on copper and battery raw materials could be muted. Energy markets face varying paths driven by economic and policy factors. Demand for coal is likely to remain robust while power, oil and gas demand are hit. Investment in renewable power will continue to be strong.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • What factors could drag China off course in 2024?
  • Mixed momentum for metals
  • Disparate paths for energy markets during the economic slowdown
  • Appendix

Tables and charts

This report includes 13 images and tables including:

  • Industrial production recovered since June
  • GDP growth for 2024: base case vs. low case
  • Private investment in energy transition vs. traditional industry, Jan-Sep
  • Consumer confidence remains bearish
  • Wood Mackenzie's proprietary China data
  • Manufacturing PMI
  • Industrial production and retail sales
  • Trade
  • Inflation
  • Property
  • Investment
  • Money supply (M2)
  • Required reserve ratio

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    China economic focus October 2023: a low case for 2024

    PDF 1.05 MB