China economic focus October 2023: a low case for 2024 Report

Insight 30 October 2023

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Report summary

China's GDP growth could slow to 3.9% in 2024, according to our analysis of a low-case scenario. This scenario assumes flat property sales and new starts, sluggish private investment and weak consumer confidence. The property recession and energy transition generate varied momentum for metals in the low case. Steel demand could be impacted the most, while the additional downward pressure on copper and battery raw materials could be muted. Energy markets face varying paths driven by economic and policy factors. Demand for coal is likely to remain robust while power, oil and gas demand are hit. Investment in renewable power will continue to be strong.