Insight
China slowdown: why this time is different
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
China is now world's second largest economy. Its energy economy is twice the size it was in 2008 but faces a number of challenges which are compounded by the trade disputes with the US. In this insight, we discuss China's commodity demand, how it has changed since 2008 and the short-term impact on oil, gas and coal. We also discuss the longer-term issues that might arise due to the current slowdown.
Table of contents
- Executive summary
- 1. China 2008 vs China 2019: size matters
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2. Old tricks to spur economic growth unlikely to work this time
- What options does the government have?
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3. Short-term impact on commodities: not quite so simple
- Thermal coal
- Oils and refining
- Gas and LNG
- 4. Long-term implications: new demand patterns will emerge
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- China imports share in domestic demand
- China imports share in global trade
- Annual demand change for key commodities – base case vs low GDP, Mt
What's included
This report contains:
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