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China's rising debt: double, double, toil and trouble?

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Report summary

China s total debt level has almost doubled in a decade rising from around 100% of GDP in the early 2000s to 200% in 2012. The sharp rise in debt accumulation across all three sectors of the economy (government corporate and household) has raised concerns both in terms of macroeconomic and financial risks.

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    China's rising debt: double, double, toil and trouble?

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Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • China’s rising debt
    • How big is the shadow in China?
    • The rise of shadow banking: all bad?
    • China's total debt: does it stack up?
    • What is the risk of a US-like subprime crisis in China?
    • Repeat of the Asian Financial Crisis?
    • So is China's debt a problem?

Tables and charts

This report includes 7 images and tables including:

Images

  • Composition of China's total social financing
  • China's shadow banking system continues to grow
  • Real negative deposit interest rates
  • China's debt by sector (% of GDP)
  • Debt and savings level of key economies
  • Rapid rise of debt preceding crises

Tables

  • Estimates of the shadow banking system in key economies, 2011

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