Africa’s upstream: the other side of the energy transition

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Around half of Africa’s population do not have access to electricity. The UN goal for sustainable development includes universal access to affordable and clean energy by 2030. Africa is very unlikely to meet this target. With the population expected to almost double to 2.5 billion by 2050, the issue must be urgently addressed. Despite Africa’s need for energy, and the importance of hydrocarbons in meeting current demand, its upstream sector faces huge risks from the energy transition. The energy transition must be managed carefully and sensitively. That means upstream operators must develop credible decarbonisation plans and improve their access to finance. It also means targeted investment in Africa's upstream sector, particularly in gas, to help displace dirtier fuels and reduce emissions intensity. Increasing gas penetration in tandem with renewables can also diversify Africa’s energy supply mix and improve security of supply.

Table of contents

  • The importance of hydrocarbons in Africa’s energy demand mix
  • Africa’s per capita energy consumption could decline
  • How the energy transition could impact Africa’s upstream sector
  • Reduce carbon emissions

Tables and charts

This report includes 10 images and tables including:

  • Africa’s energy transition scenarios and the role of other solid fuels
  • Historical per capita GDP and energy consumption in Asia Pacific
  • Forecast per capita GDP and energy consumption in Africa
  • Africa oil production to 2050
  • Net change in Africa’s oil output in AET-2 scenario (2022-2050)
  • Africa upstream asset NPV10 sensitivity
  • Share of government revenues from hydrocarbons
  • Wealth indicators for hydrocarbon producers vs non-producers in Africa
  • Oil and gas discoveries in Africa
  • Average annual emissions vs emissions intensity by region (2021-2030)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Africa’s upstream: the other side of the energy transition

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