Insight
Global economic outlook Q1 2026: pushed and pulled
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Global economic growth is set to decelerate in 2026 as headwinds intensify across major markets, including the US and China. After holding steady at 2.9% in 2025, we forecast global GDP growth to ease to 2.5% in 2026. Rising geopolitical risks have had a limited impact on the real economy. In the US, conflicting forces are at play. A softening labour market weighs on growth, while surging AI-related investment provides a powerful offset. We expect China's sluggish growth to persist. We identify the red lines for growth and how crossing them could lead to big and bold stimulus. In this insight, we also highlight four megatrends to watch. Tariff uncertainty and trade fragmentation, AI deployment, energy transition, and population decline could significantly disrupt our long-term outlook.
Table of contents
- Executive summary
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Global economy: pushed and pulled
- US: conflicting forces
- China: where are the red lines for slowing economy?
- India: standout performer
- Europe: growth cycles out of sync
- Megatrends
- 1. Tariff uncertainty, trade fragmentation and deglobalisation
- 2. AI and productivity
- 3. Energy transition
- 1 more item(s)...
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Global economic growth outlookGeopolitical risk: threats outweigh actsSlow: US labour market
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Fast: AI boom contributes to growthChina economic metricsGermany industrial productionUS average tariffGlobal population
What's included
This report contains:
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