Insight
Global economic outlook Q2 2018: how far will growth fall?
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
The global economy entered 2018 on a high, but momentum has since waned. We expect the wobbles in early 2018 to be short lived. A full-blown trade conflict between China and the US is a risk but still an outside one; both sides have too much to lose and relatively little to gain. The US economy is growing at a healthy pace, and we don't expect inflation to rise much above the Fed's 2% target. Interest rates will rise, but at a pace the markets should be able to handle. And as the US dollar resumes its slide, emerging markets will breather a little easier. Our global economic outlook is positive for the next couple of years, but risks are weighted to the downside.
Table of contents
- Increasing risks in early 2018
- How much slack remains in the US labour market?
- China returns to controlled slowdown
- Conclusion
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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US dollar index rebounding in 2018Major equity indicesComposite purchasing managers' indices (PMIs)
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US labour marketUS labour force participation rateChina nominal GDP by sector
What's included
This report contains:
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