Global economic outlook Q2 2022: war and inflation woes

The Russia/Ukraine war, rising inflation and China’s Covid-19 resurgence are dragging on the global economic recovery. We still envisage a soft landing for the global economy but risks are skewed to the downside and the probability of a recession has risen. Russia and Ukraine will suffer deep contractions in economic output this year. Europe is impacted by spillovers from the war and sanctions transmitted through trade, investment and market channels. China’s economic outlook is downgraded after a resurgence of Covid-19. In the US, inflation has surged beyond a 40-year high, prompting the Federal Reserve to start tightening monetary policy.