Global economic outlook Q4 2024: brace for protectionism Report

Insight 27 November 2024

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Report summary

The global economy will enter 2025 in good shape. An upgrade to historic US GDP provides a favourable base effect for the forecast. Easing inflation and interest cuts in major developed economies will boost industrial output. The pivot to investment and industrial production will gain momentum. China’s economic stimulus measures will drive growth back to 5% in 2025. We are forecasting gross domestic product (GDP) growth to accelerate in 2025. However, the risk of trade protectionism escalating is looming. President-elect Trump’s proposed tariffs and the potential for global retaliation are key risks.