Russia/Ukraine conflict: the economics of war Report

Insight 31 March 2022

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Report summary

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February, the escalating conflict and subsequent sanctions on Russia by Western countries and their allies have rocked the global economy. The destruction caused by the war has Ukraine heading for a deep economic contraction in 2022. In Russia, the economic picture is deteriorating too with the squeeze of sanctions. The global economy risks being thrown off course. In this insight, we outline how Russia and Ukraine face economic collapse in the short term. And we consider how bad the situation could get for the global economy in a downside scenario.

Executive summary
Economics of war
Ukrainian economy set back two decades
Russian economy feeling the pain
- Business climate in Russia deteriorating rapidly
- Will Russia default on its debt?
Ripple effects for the global economy
How bad could it get for the global economy?
Does this change the global economic landscape indelibly?