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The growing threat of recession: implications for commodity demand

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21 September 2018

The growing threat of recession: implications for commodity demand

Report summary

The global economy is expanding at a healthy pace, but risks are mounting. Trade conflict continues to escalate, while the strains of higher interest rates are emerging. As we move into the late stages of the economic cycle, the likelihood of recession increases. What will the next downturn look like, and what are the implications for commodities? We consider a downside scenario where the global economy slows sharply within the next three years.

Table of contents

    • Where are we in the economic cycle?
      • GDP growth – Wood Mackenzie base case
    • Recession – when and how?
      • Trade wars
      • Emerging market crisis
        • Emerging markets as share of global total
      • Oil price shock
      • Asset price bubble
        • Equity indices (Jan 2005 = 100)
      • Downside scenario
    • Commodity implications of recession
      • Oil
      • Steel
      • Copper
      • Coal
    • Conclusion

Tables and charts

This report includes 11 images and tables including:

  • The growing threat of recession: implications for commodity demand: Image 1
  • Unemployment rates
  • An inverted yield curve is a strong indicator of recession in the US
  • GDP growth under downside scenario
  • Global oil demand and GDP
  • Global gasoline and diesel demand
  • China reaction is critical for steel
  • Global coal demand
  • Change in seaborne coal demand due to recession
  • The growing threat of recession: implications for commodity demand: Image 4
  • The growing threat of recession: implications for commodity demand: Image 5

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    The growing threat of recession: implications for commodity demand

    PDF 802.88 KB

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