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Oil price crash: upstream FIDs grind to a halt

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26 March 2020

Oil price crash: upstream FIDs grind to a halt

Report summary

2020 was already off to a slow start. Just one project was sanctioned before the OPEC+ agreement fell apart and the oil price crashed. Companies are now in a different universe from the start of the year. In our Q1 2020 pre-FID upstream project tracker, we called out 50+ projects that were targeting FID in 2020. Of these, 40 were likely to go ahead - a similar number to 2019. That has all changed. Oil price pressures have led to deep cuts in upstream investment. Pre-FID investment is an easy target for an industry forced to cut costs. Almost all of the projects targeting FID in 2020 will be deferred. Which ones will make the grade?

Table of contents

  • The oil price crash will have a dramatic impact – almost all projects will be deferred
    • Projects economics look robust for most at US$50/bbl, but struggle at US$30/bbl
    • Only those with the strongest balance sheets will contemplate major project FIDs
    • Almost all projects will be deferred
    • Only 10 to 15 projects will reach FID in 2020
    • Which are most at risk?
    • Review of 2019
    • Useful links

Tables and charts

This report includes 2 images and tables including:

  • Number of major project FIDs by year, 2020 risked
  • Map of 2020 projects seeking FID, risked

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Q1 2020 FID tracker (RISKED).xlsx

    XLSX 117.93 KB

  • Document

    Oil price crash - upstream FIDs grind to a halt.pdf

    PDF 2.92 MB