Insight
The vulnerability of Ukraine to a Russia supply disruption
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
A disruption of Russian gas supply to Ukraine through the summer would have a prolonged impact on Ukraine. Demand this summer would likely be met from indigenous production and storage, although substantial additional imports would be required in the summer of 2015 to refill storage inventories. But the major impact would materialise in the winter of 2014-2015. Increased reverse flow capacity from Europe and higher Russian imports are unlikely to be sufficient to avoid demand disruption.
Table of contents
- Executive Summary
- Background
- Ukraine can sustain a summer disruption...
-
...but consequences will materialise during the winter
- Ukraine supply-demand balance
- Reverse flow imports from Europe will be limited by timely available capacity...
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...resulting in some unmet demand unless additional Russian gas is supplied
- Summary of supply shortfall compensation (June 2014 - April 2015)
- Conclusion
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Map of reverse flows
- Reverse flow capacity
- The vulnerability of Ukraine to a Russia supply disruption: Image 1
- The vulnerability of Ukraine to a Russia supply disruption: Image 4
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