The vulnerability of Ukraine to a Russia supply disruption
A disruption of Russian gas supply to Ukraine through the summer would have a prolonged impact on Ukraine. Demand this summer would likely be met from indigenous production and storage, although substantial additional imports would be required in the summer of 2015 to refill storage inventories. But the major impact would materialise in the winter of 2014-2015. Increased reverse flow capacity from Europe and higher Russian imports are unlikely to be sufficient to avoid demand disruption.