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Trump's tariff escalation: mountain or molehill?

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10 May 2019

Trump's tariff escalation: mountain or molehill?

Report summary

The trade war between the US and China has escalated. President Trump increased tariffs on imports from China, and China has committed to respond. How important is this? Much depends on whether a deal can still be reached. If yes, this latest development will amount to little. If no, protectionist measures will be a major drag on economic growth in 2019. We would expect global growth to slow to a pace similar to 2016, weighing on commodity demand.

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