Insight
US reciprocal tariffs pose downside risks to global economic outlook
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs exceed our assumptions for the high-tariff scenario and pose significant downside risks to global economic growth. Uncertainties remain on how countries will react to the tariff hikes. Accelerating inflation, softening consumer demand, and increasing unemployment will hit the US economy. Tariffs will lead to a chaotic restructure of global trade and supply chains.
Table of contents
- Executive summary
- Tariff barriers
- A negative economic shock
- Inflation
- US consumer and labour markets
- Exchange rate
- Monetary policy
- US domestic industry
- Investment
- Supply chains and geopolitics
- What next for global trade?
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
-
US reciprocal tariffsEstimated effective tariff rate hikeEconomies most impacted by reciprocal tariffs
What's included
This report contains:
Other reports you may be interested in
Insight
Global economic outlook Q2 2025: trade tensions bite
Our outlook for global economic growth is reduced due to trade tensions.
$1,150
Insight
Global economic outlook Q3 2025: tariffs toughen
Global economy will slow as escalating trade tariffs take full effect.
$1,150
Insight
Oil and refining impact of US reciprocal tariffs
OPEC+ decisions and the supply reaction will also drive prices and global refining margins through crude oil light/heavy price differentials
$1,350
