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A parallel metals universe of "What If"... if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
A prolonged disruption to Gulf energy flows would trigger a severe global supply shock at a time when relief from new LNG capacity remains years away. Our latest report explores a critical "What If" scenario: An Extended Disruption locking the Strait of Hormuz through the end of 2026. In this environment, the global economy faces significant stress, with oil prices potentially spiking toward US$200/bbl and Western economies at risk of recession. Beneath the macro disruption, the metals complex is being reshaped by cost pressure and geopolitical realignment.
Table of contents
- A parallel metals universe of "What If"
- Energy shock and macro contraction
- A Geopolitical divergence: the rise of tech-sovereignty
- Copper mining turns gold
- The metallurgical lifeboat and the AI Minsky moment
- Breaking the molecules
- Conclusion
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Global IP and Base Case Metals DemandAI data centre internal base case copper demand: noise vs. reality
What's included
This report contains:
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