Insight
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9 Pages

Aluminium: what to look for in 2016


Aluminium: what to look for in 2016

Report summary

Developments in China triggered significant turbulence for the aluminium market in 2015. We expect 2016 to be the low point in the current down cycle for the average annual LME price - a year when the global supply demand balance tips into a nominal deficit. It will also be a year when risks to our base case will be at their highest with concerns that global demand growth may decelerate more sharply than our base case view and that the announced capacity curtailments in China do not materialise or are more than offset by activation of significant new capacity. The annual average cash price fell 11% in 2015 and we anticipate another year of tepid price action. We expect the cash price to shed $92/t in 2016 versus 2015, registering 5.5% decline. This Insight assesses the main themes likely to emerge in 2016 and the main risks to our base line forecasts.

What's included?

This report includes 1 file(s)

  • Aluminium: what to look for in 2016 PDF - 292.63 KB 9 Pages, 1 Tables, 3 Figures

Description

This Metals Insight report highlights the key issues surrounding this topic, and draws out the implications for those involved.

For industry participants and advisors who want to look at the trends, risks and issues surrounding this topic, this report gives you an expert point of view to help inform your decision making.

Our analysts are based in the markets they analyse and work with high-quality proprietary data to provide consistent and reliable insight.

We provide unique in-depth analysis of the metals supply industry so you can make confident strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
  • Price outlook in 2016 remains uninspiring
  • Demand growth to exhibit slowdown not a meltdown
  • Will Chinese smelter cutbacks remain in place through 2016?
  • Alumina market heading towards balance
  • Malaysian mining ban to have little impact on bauxite market in 2016
  • Cost deflation to drive global cost curve lower
  • Risks for aluminium....but where is the reward?

In this report there are 4 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
  • Price outlook in 2016 remains uninspiring
  • Demand growth to exhibit slowdown not a meltdown
    • Softer demand conditions in 2016
  • Will Chinese smelter cutbacks remain in place through 2016?
    • Previously planned 2016 China smelter additions
  • Alumina market heading towards balance
  • Malaysian mining ban to have little impact on bauxite market in 2016
    • Actual and modelled Chinese bauxite demand by source and imported stockpile, 2014-2016
  • Cost deflation to drive global cost curve lower
    • Aluminium smelter cost curve by country, 2016
  • Risks for aluminium....but where is the reward?
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