BHP eyes Anglo American for copper growth

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This document analyses the potential combination of BHP and Anglo American – including valuation, strategic rationale and synergies. All these factors will be crucial in determining whether this ambitious merger becomes a reality, potentially reshaping the landscape of the global mining sector.

Table of contents

  • Potential rationalisation candidates
  • Anglo American’s valuation has had a series of hits over the past year
  • Production outlook curtailed amongst capital constraints
  • Anglo American is trading at the highest premium to our base NAV of the Diversified Miners
  • 1. BHP’s price deck is above broker consensus, while Wood Mackenzie is below
  • 2. Operational synergies in copper and metallurgical coal
  • 3. Unlocking PGM, diamond and metallurgical coal value through M&A
  • 4. Development opportunities focussed on copper and iron ore
  • BHP’s valuation is supported by the copper pipeline
  • The current market valuation is close to the highest ratio of Anglo American to BHP
  • Dusting off the M&A playbook
  • No sacred cows

Tables and charts

This report includes 10 images and tables including:

  • EBITDA margin (%)
  • Capital intensity (‘000 US$/t CuEq)
  • Timeline of company results and guidance changes
  • EV / NAV premium
  • Consensus pricing vs Wood Mackenzie - Copper (US$/t)
  • Consensus pricing vs Wood Mackenzie - Iron ore (US$/t)
  • Anglo American yet-to-approve copper projects
  • Upside to Wood Mackenzie Base Case Valuation (US$ billion)
  • Ratio of BHP to Anglo American enterprise value

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    BHP eyes Anglo American for copper growth

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