Country Report

Brazilian supply summary 2025

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Brazil's iron ore industry retains formidable advantages: world-class high-grade reserves, integrated infrastructure and proven operational capability. Yet Australia's freight advantage and subdued Chinese mill margins have eroded Brazil's delivered cost position, whilst looming oversupply will compress margins by over 50% through 2030. Success demands operational agility over static efficiency. Producers capable of rapidly adjusting product quality to meet shifting market demand will optimise margins whilst preserving premium reserves for more challenging market conditions. Those locked into rigid portfolios face acute pressure as earnings cushion deteriorates.

Table of contents

  • Market structure and key players
  • Production trends and regional dynamics
  • Infrastructure backbone
  • Cost competitiveness under pressure
  • Investment cycle and supply outlook
  • Iron Quadrangle (IQ)
  • Carajás Basin
  • Urucum Basin
  • Base case expansion projects
  • Regional production dynamics
  • Cash costs

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    Brazilian supply summary 2025

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