Global nickel industry cost summary

Indonesian policy tightening and Middle East disruptions are reshaping nickel economics in 2026. Production costs are set to rise materially year-on-year, with by-product credits providing selective relief for sulphide operations. Tighter RKAB controls have constrained upstream activity and lifted market premiums in Indonesia. Uncertainty over mid-year quota revisions left smelters with limited H2 feedstock visibility. Revised benchmark pricing hits HPAL producers hardest, compounded by elevated sulphur costs. Indonesia port-level trade data underscore the sulphur access problem. Middle East shipments fell sharply in H1, driving up procurement costs and shrinking the region's share of Indonesian imports. Operators are seeking alternatives, though viable options remain scarce. Wood Mackenzie anticipates a decline in global cost-based production this year, driven by ore quota constraints, HPAL sulphur shortages, and unplanned curtailments elsewhere.