Insight
Can China meet its ambitious targets for steel?
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
China has huge ambitions for its steel industry over the next five years. Taken at face value, the steel goals outlined in the country’s 14th five-year plan make our forecast look shockingly bearish. We have doubts that they will all be achieved. Some are mutually exclusive, some do not have support of the industry and some seem unachievable in the timescale. What China wants, but is not mentioned in the guidance, is competitive iron ore supply. The proposals (increased scrap use, higher captive iron ore ownership, rapid steel industry consolidation) all align with the aim of tightening control over iron ore prices. But this is China, where policy can play out despite fundamentals. So, what risks are there to our steel and iron ore forecast?
Table of contents
- Executive summary
- What does China want exactly?
- Scrap scenario
- Domestic iron ore scenario
- Low industry consolidation: Chinese industry’s Achilles’ heel?
- Risks to our forecast
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Nationwide PM2.5Beijing's goals versus WoodMac's base case scenarioUtilisation rate of BF versus EAF
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Rebar making cost: BF_BOF versus EAFScrap scenarioSummary
What's included
This report contains:
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