Libya's oil production revival

Report summary

In recent weeks Libya's oil production has increased significantly, from around 300,000 b/d in early September to close to 600,000 b/d today. This increase is being driven by the reopening of ports in Libya's eastern Oil Crescent. The ports had been blockaded for the last two years in a dispute over payments to a militia, the Petroleum Facilities Guard (PFG),  which ostensibly had been guarding the ports.   Libya's production increases have occurred despite the absence of a political agreement between competing administrations and an ongoing security vacuum. Yet there are reasons to think that recent production gains can be sustained, including the widely disliked PFG's demise in the east, military success against IS in Sirte and western incentives to reverse Libya's parlous state. Libya will seek to optimise production insofar as it can. Although an OPEC member, with its production having fallen so precipitously, it won't be bound by any production restrictions.