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Insight 18 February 2020

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Report summary

Although the extended Chinese New Year holidays officially ended on February 10, the return to work has been slow, with many parts of the country still effectively locked down. The longer the lockdown is maintained, the greater the risk that rather than demand being postponed, it will be permanently destroyed. In such a situation the critical unknown will be whether China's zinc and lead producers will be willing to return production to pre-crisis levels despite potentially weaker demand or whether the likely cashflow squeeze on consumers will be transmitted through the zinc and lead value chain, constraining the recovery in output.

Supply
Demand
Global Impact
Demand postponed or destroyed?

Tables and charts

This report includes the following images and tables:

Although Inner-Mongolia has only 70 confirmed cases of Covid-19 infection, labour shortages and transport disruptions are closing mines, whilst in Hunan some mines may not reopen until March
Key lead mine producing provinces have relatively low numbers of infections
Zinc smelters in key provinces such as Inner Mongolia and Hunan are already struggling because of the impact of transport restrictions on acid storage

Key lead smelting provinces are adjacent to Hubei and are facing severe transport disruptions
Housing starts, completions and land sales are all set to plunge after a strong end to 2019
Little sign of a return to work