Global aluminium investment horizon outlook - Q3 2022
Report summary
Table of contents
- Aluminium medium-term outlook
- Alumina medium-term outlook
- Bauxite medium-term outlook
-
Aluminium long-term outlook
- Which countries are likely to host new aluminium capacity?
- The price to pay for carbon emissions
- Base case incentive price
- The long-term aluminium price
-
Alumina long-term outlook
- Main risks around our base case aluminium market outlook
- Scenario analysis
- Summary
- Changes to consumption forecasts since Q2 2022
-
Forecasts by region
- China
- Asia ex-China
- Europe
- North America
-
Smelter production and capacity
- Summary
-
Aluminium production changes since the last quarter
- Global smelter production and capacity 2021-2032
- Asia
- Asia ex-China
- China
- Europe
- Latin America and the Caribbean
-
Refinery production and capacity
- Summary
-
Alumina production changes since the last quarter
- Global refinery production and capacity 2021-2032
- Asia
- India
- Indonesia
- China
- Europe
- Latin America and the Caribbean
-
Bauxite production
- Africa
- Asia (excl. China)
- China
- Latin America and the Caribbean
- Oceania
-
Forecasting methodology
- Project Classification
- Supply disruptions
- Market-driven adjustment
-
Long term price, incentive price, risks and IRR methodology
- Incentive price
- Long term price
- Assumptions used to construct incentive prices
- Risks around the incentive price
- Bauxite pricing
Tables and charts
This report includes 39 images and tables including:
- Global aluminium balance and prices
- Primary aluminium demand and capacity, 2000-2032, Mtpa
- Stock days of consumption and price
- Global supply-demand balance
- Stock days and price
- Smelter grade alumina balance
- Alumina demand and capacity, 2010-2032, Mtpa
- Global alumina balance and prices
- Global seaborne bauxite balance and prices
- Seaborne supply and demand, Mt (dry)
- Alumina incentive price, capital intensity and location
- Alumina incentive price set at US$350/t (Constant 2022 $)
- Average alumina prices, 1991-2040 and incentive price (US$/t)
- Main changes in aluminium production since the previous quarter
- Regional aluminium smelter production capability – Mt
- Main changes in alumina production since the previous quarter
- Global metallurgical bauxite supply (Mt)
- Required rates of return by country used in the calculations
- Aluminium incentive price, capital intensity and location
- Long term price forecast at US$3000/t (real 2022 $) – Incentive price US$2400
- Average LME aluminium cash prices, 1991-2050 and long-term price (US$/t)
- Scenario analysis details
- Base case, low case and high case scenario prices
- Global primary aluminium consumption (Mt)
- Changes to primary aluminium consumption since Q2 2022 (Mt)
- Global primary aluminium consumption growth prospects wane by end of the decade
- Global secondary consumption to grow by 4% p.a. to 2032
- Main changes to primary aluminium consumption forecast Q2 2020 vs Q3 2020 (kt)
- Total consumption by end-use sector
- Secondary consumption to drive future total demand for aluminium
- Non-residential construction set for a modest uplift to 2027
- Total end-use demand in Asia ex-China
- Total end-use demand in Japan
- Total end-use demand in Europe
- Total end-use demand in North America
- Expected utilisation rate of Chinese aluminium smelters, 2019-2027 (Mt)
- ROW aluminium new supply
- Europe power prices
- Regional alumina refinery production capability – Mt
What's included
This report contains:
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