Global aluminium investment horizon outlook Q4 2023

The aluminium investment horizon outlook is published in September and December and provides a detailed forecast of aluminium market fundamentals out to 2033 with supporting tables out to 2050. Demand weakness over the next few years will give way to a structural uplift further out, driven by rising offtake from the energy transition sectors. By the end of the decade, it will be recycling and secondary aluminium that will be meeting the incremental growth in demand to the market. Near-term, weak primary metal demand combined with a modest expansion in smelter output will keep the global balance in a slight surplus over the next five years. With stock days of consumption stuck at around 77 days we see little prospect of a significant rebound in the average annual price.