The aluminium metal market service long term outlook (LTO) is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals out to 2040. A downgrade to primary aluminium consumption in the medium-term, higher scrap usage globally means that there is less requirement for the aluminium industry to make significant investment in new smelting capacity over the long-term. However, we do expect some investment in replacement capacity. We include for the first time in the LTO an “In Focus” section that will explore critically important aspects of the aluminium industry. The first looks at supply chain diversification in the long run. This will have important implications for future first-use demand growth and for where new smelting capacity may be located.