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Global aluminium long-term outlook Q1 2020

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31 March 2020

Global aluminium long-term outlook Q1 2020

Report summary

The aluminium metal market service long term outlook (LTO) is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals out to 2040. A downgrade to primary aluminium consumption in the medium-term, higher scrap usage globally means that there is less requirement for the aluminium industry to make significant investment in new smelting capacity over the long-term. However, we do expect some investment in replacement capacity. We include for the first time in the LTO an “In Focus” section that will explore critically important aspects of the aluminium industry. The first looks at supply chain diversification in the long run. This will have important implications for future first-use demand growth and for where new smelting capacity may be located.

Table of contents

  • Aluminium market outlook
  • Alumina market outlook
    • Main risks around our base case aluminium market outlook
    • Beyond coronavirus: Supply chain diversification in the long run
    • Summary
    • Changes to consumption forecasts since Q4 2019
    • China
    • Asia ex-China
    • Europe
    • North America
    • United States
    • Project Classification
    • Summary
    • Global smelter production and capacity 2019-2040
    • Africa
    • North America
    • Asia
    • China
    • Indonesia
    • Europe
    • Russia and Caspian
    • Oceania
    • Summary
    • Global refinery production and capacity 2019-2040
    • Latin America and the Caribbean
    • Asia
    • India
    • China
    • Europe
    • Oceania
    • Regional focus
    • Africa
    • Asia (excl. China)
    • China
    • Latin America and the Caribbean
    • Oceania
  • Forecasting methodology
  • Rationale, risks and IRR methodology
  • Assumptions used to construct incentive prices
  • Alumina: incentive price revised to US$350/t (from US$380/t) on location and lower discount rates
  • Aluminium: the required aluminium incentive price is lower than the historical average at US$2100/t
  • Risks around the incentive price
    • Global smelter production and capability 2019-2040
    • Global refinery production and capability 2019-2040
    • Global bauxite production, demand and regional balances 2019-2040
  • Regional demand tables

Tables and charts

This report includes 69 images and tables including:

  • Global days of consumption to hit 84 days by 2023 driven by large surpluses in ROW
  • Primary aluminium demand and capacity (93% utilisation), 2010-2040, Mtpa
  • Downgrade in the primary aluminium incentive price from US$2250/t to US$2100/t
  • Global aluminium balance
  • Average LME aluminium cash prices, 1991-2040 and incentive price (US$/t)
  • Alumina demand and capacity (93% utilisation), 2011-2040, Mtpa
  • Global alumina balance
  • Long term alumina incentive price reduced to US$350/t
  • Spot alumina prices, 1991-2040
  • Total bauxite supply and demand, Mt
  • Global metallurgical bauxite requirement (Mt)
  • Chinese low temp bauxite import requirement (MT) and marginal quality-adjusted delivered cost (US$/t Al2O3 equivalent), 2025
  • Quality-adjusted delivered cost curve for LT imported ores sources into China in 2025
  • Global seaborne bauxite balance and prices
  • Base case global bauxite supply 2019-2025, 2030, 2040 (Mt)
  • Alumina incentive price, long run operating cost and capital intensity, US$/t
  • Aluminium incentive price, long run operating cost and capital intensity, US$/t
  • Global primary aluminium consumption by region 2019-2024, 2025, 2030, 2040 (Mt)
  • China primary aluminium consumption 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (Mt)
  • African primary aluminium consumption 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
  • Asian primary aluminium consumption 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
  • European primary aluminium consumption 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
  • Latin America primary aluminium consumption 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
  • Middle East primary aluminium consumption 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
  • North America primary aluminium consumption 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
  • Russia primary aluminium consumption 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium consumption (Mt)
  • China's share of global primary demand falls from a peak of 59% in 2025 to 47% by 2040
  • Main changes to primary aluminium consumption forecast Q4 2019 vs Q1 2020 (kt)
  • Secondary aluminium consumption growth set to accelerate from late 2020s
  • Intensity of total aluminium use in China to fall below industrial production from 2025 onwards
  • Total demand split by end-use sectors
  • Transportation set to drive total aluminium demand growth over the next 20 years
  • Non-residential construction will provide support to aluminium demand beyond 2022
  • European imports of extrusions from China
  • US consumption per end-use sector
  • US imports of rolled products from countries under investigation
  • Global aluminium production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (Mt)
  • China's smelter capacity change in 2019-2025, ktpa
  • Yunnan Hydropower Redundancy
  • Global alumina production 2019-2023, 2025, 2035 and 2040 (Mt)
  • Provincial distribution of China’s imported bauxite demand, 2019-2040 (Mt)
  • Global aluminium production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (Mt)
  • Africa aluminium production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
  • North America aluminium production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
  • Latin America aluminium production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
  • Middle East aluminium production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
  • Asia aluminium production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
  • Europe aluminium production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
  • Russia and Caspian aluminium production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
  • Oceania aluminium production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
  • Global alumina production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (Mt)
  • Africa alumina production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
  • North America alumina production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
  • Latin America alumina production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
  • Middle East alumina production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
  • Asia alumina production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
  • Europe alumina production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
  • Russia and Caspian alumina production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
  • Oceania alumina production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
  • Global metallurgical bauxite supply, 2019-2024, 2025, 2030, 2040 (Mt)
  • Africa bauxite supply, demand and balance, 2019-2024, 2025, 2030, 2040 (Mt)
  • North America bauxite supply, demand and regional balance, 2019-2024, 2025, 2030, 2040 (Mt)
  • Latin America bauxite supply, demand and regional balance, 2019-2024, 2025, 2030, 2040 (Mt)
  • Middle East bauxite supply, demand and regional balance, 2019-2024, 2025, 2030, 2040 (Mt)
  • Asia bauxite supply, demand and regional balance, 2019-2024, 2025, 2030, 2040 (Mt)
  • Europe bauxite supply, demand and regional balance, 2019-2024, 2025, 2030, 2040 (Mt)
  • Russia and Caspian bauxite supply, demand and regional balance, 2019-2024, 2025, 2030, 2040 (Mt)
  • Oceania bauxite supply, demand and regional balance, 2019-2024, 2025, 2030, 2040 (Mt)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Production rankings aluminium LTO Q1 2020.xls

    XLS 468.50 KB

  • Document

    Demand analysis aluminium LTO Q1 2020.xls

    XLS 921.50 KB

  • Document

    Market balance and prices aluminium LTO Q1 2020.xls

    XLS 315.50 KB

  • Document

    Demand main changes aluminium LTO Q1 2020.xls

    XLS 254.50 KB

  • Document

    Supply main changes aluminium LTO Q1 2020.xls

    XLS 500.00 KB

  • Document

    Smelter analysis aluminium LTO Q1 2020.xls

    XLS 1.30 MB

  • Document

    Refinery analysis aluminium LTO Q1 2020.xlsx

    XLSX 1.56 MB

  • Document

    Mine analysis aluminium LTO Q1 2020.xls

    XLS 365.00 KB

  • Document

    Aluminium_Tables_Q1_2020.pdf

    PDF 1.72 MB

  • Document

    Global aluminium long-term outlook Q1 2020

    PDF 1.28 MB

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