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Global aluminium long-term outlook Q1 2021

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25 March 2021

Global aluminium long-term outlook Q1 2021

Report summary

The aluminium metal market service long-term outlook (LTO) is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals out to 2040. The worldwide government response to the pandemic in the shape of green investment, which is wedded to stimulus spending and energy transition, has fundamentally changed the outlook for the aluminium industry. A low carbon world will bring disruption and dislocation for the aluminium market. We expect to see greater regionalisation of production and demand. Moreover, pricing is set to move from global price discovery to one defined by the carbon intensity of aluminium. However, there are a multitude of possible future outcomes. We are just at the start of a major shift in the dynamics of the aluminium market.

Table of contents

    • Long-run aluminium prices
    • Which countries are likely to host new aluminium capacity?
    • Base case incentive price
    • The impact of emissions and inert anode technology
    • The price to pay for carbon emissions
    • and the benefits of non-carbon electrolytic cells
    • Long-run alumina prices
    • Main risks around our base case aluminium market outlook
    • Scenario analysis
    • China’s path to carbon neutrality
    • Summary
    • Changes to consumption forecasts since Q4 2020
    • China
    • Asia ex-China
    • Europe
    • North America
    • United States
    • Project Classification
    • Supply disruptions
    • Market-driven adjustment
    • Summary
    • Global smelter production and capacity 2020-2040
    • Asia
    • China
    • Indonesia
    • India
    • Latin America and the Caribbean
    • Africa
    • Europe
    • Russia and the Caspian
    • Oceania
    • Summary
    • Global refinery production and capacity 2020-2040
    • Asia
    • China
    • Indonesia
    • India
    • Europe
    • Russia and the Caspian
    • Africa
    • Asia (excl. China)
    • China
    • Latin America and the Caribbean
    • Oceania
  • Forecasting methodology
  • Rationale, risks and IRR methodology
  • Assumptions used to construct incentive prices
  • Risks around the incentive price
    • Global smelter production and capability 2020-2040
    • Global refinery production and capability 2020-2040
    • Global bauxite production, demand and regional balances 2019-2040
  • Regional demand tables

Tables and charts

This report includes 81 images and tables including:

  • Global aluminium balance and prices
  • Primary aluminium demand and capacity, 2010-2040, Mtpa
  • Stock days of consumption and price
  • Global supply-demand balance
  • Stock days and price
  • Smelter grade alumina balance
  • Alumina demand and capacity, 2010-2040, Mtpa
  • CHALCO extends its lead
  • Global alumina balance and prices
  • Global seaborne bauxite balance and prices
  • Seaborne supply and demand, Mt (dry)
  • Key bauxite ore routes freight forecasts
  • Global metallurgical bauxite supply (Mt)
  • Global metallurgical bauxite requirement (Mt)
  • Required rates of return by country used in the calculations
  • Global primary aluminium consumption by region 2020-2026, 2030, and 2040 (kt)
  • China primary aluminium consumption 2020-2026, 2030, and 2040 (kt)
  • African primary aluminium consumption 2020-2026, 2030, and 2040 (kt)
  • Asian primary aluminium consumption 2020-2026, 2030, and 2040 (kt)
  • European primary aluminium consumption 2020-2026, 2030, and 2040 (kt)
  • Latin America primary aluminium consumption 2020-2026, 2030, and 2040 (kt)
  • Middle East primary aluminium consumption 2020-2026, 2030, and 2040 (kt)
  • North America primary aluminium consumption 2020-2026, 2030, and 2040 (kt)
  • Russia primary aluminium consumption 2020-2026, 2030, and 2040 (kt)
  • Aluminium incentive price, capital intensity and location
  • Incentive price set at US$2000/t (real 2021 $)
  • Average LME aluminium cash prices, 1991-2040 and incentive price (US$/t)
  • Alumina incentive price, capital intensity and location
  • Alumina incentive price set at US$350/t (Constant 2021 $)
  • Spot alumina prices, 1991-2040
  • Base, low and high price scenarios (real US$/t)
  • Global primary aluminium consumption (Mt)
  • Changes to primary aluminium consumption since Q4 2020 (Mt)
  • Global primary consumption to peak at 81 Mt in 2029
  • Secondary consumption to maintain annual growth of 3% p.a. longer-term
  • Main changes to primary aluminium consumption forecast Q2 2020 vs Q3 2020 (kt)
  • Secondary demand to drive future total metal requirement
  • Total consumption by product form
  • Total demand split by end-use sectors
  • China still has some way to go in reaching 80% urbanisation level
  • Commercial construction activity to remain elevated this decade
  • European demand by sector
  • US consumption per end-use sector
  • EU 27 chapter 27 imports
  • Probable aluminium projects
  • Global aluminium production 2020-2025, 2026, 2030 and 2040 (Mt)
  • China’s new smelter projects in 2020-2025, ktpa
  • Global alumina production 2020-2025, 2026, 2030 and 2040 (Mt)
  • West African bauxite production by country/project status, 2015-2030
  • Provincial distribution (%) of China’s seaborne bauxite demand, 2015-2030
  • Global aluminium production 2020-2025, 2026, 2030 and 2040 (Mt)
  • Africa aluminium production 2020-2025, 2026, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
  • North America aluminium production 2020-2025, 2026, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
  • Latin America aluminium production 2020-2025, 2026, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
  • Middle East aluminium production 2020-2025, 2026, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
  • Asia aluminium production 2020-2025, 2026, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
  • Europe aluminium production 2020-2025, 2026, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
  • Russia and Caspian aluminium production 2020-2025, 2026, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
  • Oceania aluminium production 2020-2025, 2026, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
  • Global alumina production 2020-2025, 2026, 2030 and 2040 (Mt)
  • Africa alumina production 2020-2025, 2026, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
  • North America alumina production 2020-2025, 2026, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
  • Latin America alumina production 2020-2025, 2026, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
  • Middle East alumina production 2020-2025, 2026, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
  • Asia alumina production 2020-2025, 2026, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
  • Europe alumina production 2020-2025, 2026, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
  • Russia and Caspian alumina production 2020-2025, 2026, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
  • Oceania alumina production 2020-2025, 2026, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
  • Global metallurgical bauxite supply, 2020-2025, 2026, 2030 and 2040 (Mt)
  • Global metallurgical bauxite demand, 2020-2025, 2026, 2030 and 2040 (Mt)
  • Africa bauxite supply, demand and balance, 2020-2025, 2026, 2030 and 2040 (Mt)
  • North America bauxite supply, demand and regional balance, 2020-2025, 2026, 2030 and 2040 (Mt)
  • Latin America bauxite supply, demand and regional balance, 2020-2025, 2026, 2030 and 2040 (Mt)
  • Middle East bauxite supply, demand and regional balance, 2020-2025, 2026, 2030 and 2040 (Mt)
  • Asia bauxite supply, demand and regional balance, 2020-2025, 2026, 2030 and 2040 (Mt)
  • Europe bauxite supply, demand and regional balance, 2020-2025, 2026, 2030 and 2040 (Mt)
  • Russia and Caspian bauxite supply, demand and regional balance, 2020-2025, 2026, 2030 and 2040 (Mt)
  • Oceania bauxite supply, demand and regional balance, 2020-2025, 2026, 2030 and 2040 (Mt)
  • Global seaborne bauxite balance and prices (Mt)

What's included

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    Global aluminium long-term outlook Q1 2021

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