Global aluminium long-term outlook Q1 2021 Report

Commodity Market Report 25 March 2021

Get this report

$10,000

You can pay by card or invoice

Share link

First name
Last name
Job Title
Company
Email
Telephone

Country

Message

Consent

Please keep me informed about Wood Mackenzie products, services and events.

Submit Category

For details on how your data is used and stored, see our Privacy Notice.

- FAQs about online orders
- Find out more about subscriptions

Report summary

The aluminium metal market service long-term outlook (LTO) is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals out to 2040. The worldwide government response to the pandemic in the shape of green investment, which is wedded to stimulus spending and energy transition, has fundamentally changed the outlook for the aluminium industry. A low carbon world will bring disruption and dislocation for the aluminium market. We expect to see greater regionalisation of production and demand. Moreover, pricing is set to move from global price discovery to one defined by the carbon intensity of aluminium. However, there are a multitude of possible future outcomes. We are just at the start of a major shift in the dynamics of the aluminium market.

Aluminium market outlook
- Long-run aluminium prices
- Which countries are likely to host new aluminium capacity?
- Base case incentive price
- The impact of emissions and inert anode technology
- The price to pay for carbon emissions
- and the benefits of non-carbon electrolytic cells
Alumina market outlook
- Long-run alumina prices
Bauxite market outlook
- Main risks around our base case aluminium market outlook
- Scenario analysis
- China’s path to carbon neutrality
- Summary
- Changes to consumption forecasts since Q4 2020
Forecasts by region
- China
- Asia ex-China
- Europe
- North America
- United States
- Project Classification
- Supply disruptions
- Market-driven adjustment
Smelter production and capacity
- Summary
- Global smelter production and capacity 2020-2040
- Asia
- China
- Indonesia
- India
- Latin America and the Caribbean
- Africa
- Europe
- Russia and the Caspian
- Oceania
Refinery production and capacity
- Summary
- Global refinery production and capacity 2020-2040
- Asia
- China
- Indonesia
- India
- Europe
- Russia and the Caspian
Bauxite production
- Africa
- Asia (excl. China)
- China
- Latin America and the Caribbean
- Oceania
Forecasting methodology
Rationale, risks and IRR methodology
Assumptions used to construct incentive prices
Risks around the incentive price
Bauxite pricing
- Global smelter production and capability 2020-2040
- Global refinery production and capability 2020-2040
- Global bauxite production, demand and regional balances 2019-2040
Regional demand tables

Tables and charts

This report includes 81 images and tables including:

Global aluminium balance and prices
Primary aluminium demand and capacity, 2010-2040, Mtpa
Stock days of consumption and price

Global supply-demand balance
Stock days and price
Smelter grade alumina balance
Alumina demand and capacity, 2010-2040, Mtpa
CHALCO extends its lead
Global alumina balance and prices
Global seaborne bauxite balance and prices
Seaborne supply and demand, Mt (dry)
Key bauxite ore routes freight forecasts
Global metallurgical bauxite supply (Mt)
Global metallurgical bauxite requirement (Mt)
Required rates of return by country used in the calculations
Global primary aluminium consumption by region 2020-2026, 2030, and 2040 (kt)
China primary aluminium consumption 2020-2026, 2030, and 2040 (kt)
African primary aluminium consumption 2020-2026, 2030, and 2040 (kt)
Asian primary aluminium consumption 2020-2026, 2030, and 2040 (kt)
European primary aluminium consumption 2020-2026, 2030, and 2040 (kt)
Latin America primary aluminium consumption 2020-2026, 2030, and 2040 (kt)
Middle East primary aluminium consumption 2020-2026, 2030, and 2040 (kt)
North America primary aluminium consumption 2020-2026, 2030, and 2040 (kt)
Russia primary aluminium consumption 2020-2026, 2030, and 2040 (kt)
Aluminium incentive price, capital intensity and location
Incentive price set at US$2000/t (real 2021 $)
Average LME aluminium cash prices, 1991-2040 and incentive price (US$/t)
Alumina incentive price, capital intensity and location
Alumina incentive price set at US$350/t (Constant 2021 $)
Spot alumina prices, 1991-2040
Base, low and high price scenarios (real US$/t)
Global primary aluminium consumption (Mt)
Changes to primary aluminium consumption since Q4 2020 (Mt)
Global primary consumption to peak at 81 Mt in 2029
Secondary consumption to maintain annual growth of 3% p.a. longer-term
Main changes to primary aluminium consumption forecast Q2 2020 vs Q3 2020 (kt)
Secondary demand to drive future total metal requirement
Total consumption by product form
Total demand split by end-use sectors
China still has some way to go in reaching 80% urbanisation level
Commercial construction activity to remain elevated this decade
European demand by sector
US consumption per end-use sector
EU 27 chapter 27 imports
Probable aluminium projects
Global aluminium production 2020-2025, 2026, 2030 and 2040 (Mt)
China’s new smelter projects in 2020-2025, ktpa
Global alumina production 2020-2025, 2026, 2030 and 2040 (Mt)
West African bauxite production by country/project status, 2015-2030
Provincial distribution (%) of China’s seaborne bauxite demand, 2015-2030
Global aluminium production 2020-2025, 2026, 2030 and 2040 (Mt)
Africa aluminium production 2020-2025, 2026, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
North America aluminium production 2020-2025, 2026, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
Latin America aluminium production 2020-2025, 2026, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
Middle East aluminium production 2020-2025, 2026, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
Asia aluminium production 2020-2025, 2026, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
Europe aluminium production 2020-2025, 2026, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
Russia and Caspian aluminium production 2020-2025, 2026, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
Oceania aluminium production 2020-2025, 2026, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
Global alumina production 2020-2025, 2026, 2030 and 2040 (Mt)
Africa alumina production 2020-2025, 2026, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
North America alumina production 2020-2025, 2026, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
Latin America alumina production 2020-2025, 2026, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
Middle East alumina production 2020-2025, 2026, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
Asia alumina production 2020-2025, 2026, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
Europe alumina production 2020-2025, 2026, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
Russia and Caspian alumina production 2020-2025, 2026, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
Oceania alumina production 2020-2025, 2026, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
Global metallurgical bauxite supply, 2020-2025, 2026, 2030 and 2040 (Mt)
Global metallurgical bauxite demand, 2020-2025, 2026, 2030 and 2040 (Mt)
Africa bauxite supply, demand and balance, 2020-2025, 2026, 2030 and 2040 (Mt)
North America bauxite supply, demand and regional balance, 2020-2025, 2026, 2030 and 2040 (Mt)
Latin America bauxite supply, demand and regional balance, 2020-2025, 2026, 2030 and 2040 (Mt)
Middle East bauxite supply, demand and regional balance, 2020-2025, 2026, 2030 and 2040 (Mt)
Asia bauxite supply, demand and regional balance, 2020-2025, 2026, 2030 and 2040 (Mt)
Europe bauxite supply, demand and regional balance, 2020-2025, 2026, 2030 and 2040 (Mt)
Russia and Caspian bauxite supply, demand and regional balance, 2020-2025, 2026, 2030 and 2040 (Mt)
Oceania bauxite supply, demand and regional balance, 2020-2025, 2026, 2030 and 2040 (Mt)
Global seaborne bauxite balance and prices (Mt)