The aluminium metal market service long term outlook (LTO) is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals out to 2040. The aluminium market continues to be buffeted by turbulence from trade disputes, tariffs and the Rusal sanctions. The outcomes from these will define the market over the next few years. The US-China trade war and US tariffs on aluminium has spooked investor sentiment, pushing the average quarterly LME price from $2258/t down to $2054/t so far in Q3. A tight market over the next few years on supply restraint from China and still decent global demand growth should support a steady increase in average annual prices over the next 3-4 years.