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Global aluminium long-term outlook Q3 2018

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26 September 2018

Global aluminium long-term outlook Q3 2018

Report summary

The aluminium metal market service long term outlook (LTO) is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals out to 2040. The aluminium market continues to be buffeted by turbulence from trade disputes, tariffs and the Rusal sanctions. The outcomes from these will define the market over the next few years. The US-China trade war and US tariffs on aluminium has spooked investor sentiment, pushing the average quarterly LME price from $2258/t down to $2054/t so far in Q3. A tight market over the next few years on supply restraint from China and still decent global demand growth should support a steady increase in average annual prices over the next 3-4 years.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • Overview
      • Changes to consumption forecasts since Q2 2018
    • Forecasts by region
      • Asia
      • China
      • Asia (ex-China)
        • Europe
      • North America
    • Project Classification
    • Summary
      • Global and ROW smelter capacity utilisation
    • Smelter production changes since Q2 2018 and forecasts
    • Global smelter production and capacity 2017-2040
    • Africa
    • North America
      • North America aluminium production
    • Latin America
      • Latin America aluminium production
    • Middle East
      • Middle East aluminium production
    • Asia
      • Asia aluminium production
    • Europe
      • Europe aluminium production 2017-2022, 2025, 2035 and 2040 (kt)
    • Russia and the Caspian
      • Oceania aluminium production
    • Project Classification
    • Summary
      • Refinery capacity utilisation
    • Refinery production changes since Q2 2018 and forecasts
    • Global refinery production and capacity 2017-2040
    • Africa
    • North America
      • 2017-2022, 2025, 2035 and 2040 (kt)
    • Latin America
      • 2017-2022, 2025, 2035 and 2040 (kt)
    • Middle East
      • Middle East alumina production
    • Asia
      • Asia alumina production
      • 2017-2022, 2025, 2035 and 2040 (kt)
      • China alumina production forecast by province
    • India
    • Europe
      • Europe alumina production
    • Russia and the Caspian
      • Russia and the Caspian alumina production 2017-2022, 2025, 2035 and 2040 (kt)
    • Oceania
      • Total bauxite supply and demand, Mt
    • Aluminium market review and outlook

Tables and charts

This report includes 70 images and tables including:

  • Global primary aluminium consumption (Mt)
  • Primary aluminium demand by region, 2015 - 2040
  • Revisions to Q2 2018 forecasts (kt)
  • Global aluminium production 2017-2022, 2025, 2035 and 2040 (kt)
  • Africa aluminium production 2017-2022, 2025, 2035 and 2040 (kt)
  • Supply: Table 7
  • Russia and the Caspian aluminium production 2017-2022, 2025, 2035 and 2040 (kt)
  • Revisions to Q2 2018 forecast, (kt)
  • Global alumina production 2017-2022, 2025, 2035 and 2040 (kt)
  • Africa alumina production 2017-2022, 2025, 2035 and 2040 (kt)
  • Oceania alumina production 2017-2022, 2025, 2035 and 2040 (kt)
  • Global supply-demand balance, LME cash prices and stocks in days of consumption
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 2
  • Atlantic seaborne supply & demand, 2010-2035, Mt
  • Indo-Pacific seaborne supply & demand, 2010-2035, Mt
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 3
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 4
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 5
  • Historical and equilibrium alumina prices (2018 US$/t)
  • Historical and equilibrium aluminium prices (2018 US$/t)
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 6
  • Main changes to primary aluminium consumption forecast Q2 2018 vs Q3 2018 (kt)
  • Asia primary aluminium consumption kt
  • Chinese primary aluminium consumption (Mt and year-on-year % growth)
  • Demand: Image 2
  • Demand: Image 3
  • Investment breakdown of Belt and Road projects by sectors, Bn US$
  • Better than expected housing completions will support demand over the next few years
  • Residential housing market set for a higher growth path
  • Bigger housing units will feed through to better demand for consumer durables
  • China vehicle output by type
  • Prospects for aluminium usage in transport look promising post-2025
  • Long term requirement for aluminium to be met from secondary material
  • Demand: Table 5
  • Asian imports of major downstream products form China
  • North American primary aluminium consumption (Mt and year-on year % growth)
  • North American car production
  • Production of semis in the US and Canada
  • Supply: Image 1
  • Supply: Table 4
  • Supply: Table 5
  • Supply: Table 6
  • Supply: Table 8
  • Supply: Table 9
  • Supply: Table 11
  • Supply: Image 2
  • Supply: Table 15
  • Supply: Table 16
  • Supply: Table 17
  • Supply: Table 18
  • Supply: Image 3
  • Supply: Table 19
  • Supply: Table 20
  • Supply: Image 4
  • Supply: Table 22
  • Supply: Table 23
  • Supply: Table 24
  • Supply: Table 25
  • Supply: Table 26
  • Supply: Table 27
  • Provincial Chinese alumina refineries’ weighted average cash cost position 2017
  • Provincial Chinese alumina refineries’ weighted average cash cost position 2018
  • Supply: Table 28
  • Supply: Table 29
  • Supply: Table 30
  • Supply: Table 31
  • European primary aluminium consumption (Mt and year-on year % growth)
  • European demand for automotive sheet
  • European car production

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Aluminium Tables Q3 2018.pdf

    PDF 1.13 MB

  • Document

    Demand main changes aluminium LTO Q3 2018.xls

    XLS 285.00 KB

  • Document

    Demand analysis aluminium LTO Q3 2018.xls

    XLS 890.50 KB

  • Document

    Supply main changes aluminium LTO Q3 2018.xls

    XLS 637.00 KB

  • Document

    Production rankings aluminium LTO Q3 2018.xls

    XLS 564.00 KB

  • Document

    Smelter analysis aluminium LTO Q3 2018.xls

    XLS 1018.00 KB

  • Document

    Refinery analysis aluminium LTO Q3 2018.xls

    XLS 681.00 KB

  • Document

    Mine analysis aluminium LTO Q3 2018.xls

    XLS 361.00 KB

  • Document

    Market balance and prices aluminium LTO Q3 2018.xls

    XLS 297.00 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium long-term outlook Q3 2018

    PDF 1.27 MB

  • Document

    Global aluminium long-term outlook Q3 2018

    ZIP 3.49 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 703.55 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 892.02 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 980.27 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 860.40 KB

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