Global aluminium long-term outlook Q3 2018 Report

Commodity Market Report 26 September 2018

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Report summary

The aluminium metal market service long term outlook (LTO) is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals out to 2040. The aluminium market continues to be buffeted by turbulence from trade disputes, tariffs and the Rusal sanctions. The outcomes from these will define the market over the next few years. The US-China trade war and US tariffs on aluminium has spooked investor sentiment, pushing the average quarterly LME price from $2258/t down to $2054/t so far in Q3. A tight market over the next few years on supply restraint from China and still decent global demand growth should support a steady increase in average annual prices over the next 3-4 years.

Executive summary
Demand
- Overview
  - Changes to consumption forecasts since Q2 2018
- Forecasts by region
  - Asia
  - China
  - Asia (ex-China)
    - Europe
  - North America
Supply
- Project Classification
- Summary
  - Global and ROW smelter capacity utilisation
- Smelter production changes since Q2 2018 and forecasts
- Global smelter production and capacity 2017-2040
- Africa
- North America
  - North America aluminium production
- Latin America
  - Latin America aluminium production
- Middle East
  - Middle East aluminium production
- Asia
  - Asia aluminium production
- Europe
  - Europe aluminium production 2017-2022, 2025, 2035 and 2040 (kt)
- Russia and the Caspian
  - Oceania aluminium production
- Project Classification
- Summary
  - Refinery capacity utilisation
- Refinery production changes since Q2 2018 and forecasts
- Global refinery production and capacity 2017-2040
- Africa
- North America
  - 2017-2022, 2025, 2035 and 2040 (kt)
- Latin America
  - 2017-2022, 2025, 2035 and 2040 (kt)
- Middle East
  - Middle East alumina production
- Asia
  - Asia alumina production
  - 2017-2022, 2025, 2035 and 2040 (kt)
  - China alumina production forecast by province
- India
- Europe
  - Europe alumina production
- Russia and the Caspian
  - Russia and the Caspian alumina production 2017-2022, 2025, 2035 and 2040 (kt)
- Oceania
  - Total bauxite supply and demand, Mt
Supply-demand balances
- Aluminium market review and outlook

Tables and charts

This report includes 70 images and tables including:

Global primary aluminium consumption (Mt)
Primary aluminium demand by region, 2015 - 2040
Revisions to Q2 2018 forecasts (kt)

Global aluminium production 2017-2022, 2025, 2035 and 2040 (kt)
Africa aluminium production 2017-2022, 2025, 2035 and 2040 (kt)
Supply: Table 7
Russia and the Caspian aluminium production 2017-2022, 2025, 2035 and 2040 (kt)
Revisions to Q2 2018 forecast, (kt)
Global alumina production 2017-2022, 2025, 2035 and 2040 (kt)
Africa alumina production 2017-2022, 2025, 2035 and 2040 (kt)
Oceania alumina production 2017-2022, 2025, 2035 and 2040 (kt)
Global supply-demand balance, LME cash prices and stocks in days of consumption
Supply-demand balances: Table 1
Supply-demand balances: Table 2
Atlantic seaborne supply & demand, 2010-2035, Mt
Indo-Pacific seaborne supply & demand, 2010-2035, Mt
Supply-demand balances: Table 3
Supply-demand balances: Table 4
Supply-demand balances: Table 5
Historical and equilibrium alumina prices (2018 US$/t)
Historical and equilibrium aluminium prices (2018 US$/t)
Supply-demand balances: Table 6
Main changes to primary aluminium consumption forecast Q2 2018 vs Q3 2018 (kt)
Asia primary aluminium consumption kt
Chinese primary aluminium consumption (Mt and year-on-year % growth)
Demand: Image 2
Demand: Image 3
Investment breakdown of Belt and Road projects by sectors, Bn US$
Better than expected housing completions will support demand over the next few years
Residential housing market set for a higher growth path
Bigger housing units will feed through to better demand for consumer durables
China vehicle output by type
Prospects for aluminium usage in transport look promising post-2025
Long term requirement for aluminium to be met from secondary material
Demand: Table 5
Asian imports of major downstream products form China
North American primary aluminium consumption (Mt and year-on year % growth)
North American car production
Production of semis in the US and Canada
Supply: Image 1
Supply: Table 4
Supply: Table 5
Supply: Table 6
Supply: Table 8
Supply: Table 9
Supply: Table 11
Supply: Image 2
Supply: Table 15
Supply: Table 16
Supply: Table 17
Supply: Table 18
Supply: Image 3
Supply: Table 19
Supply: Table 20
Supply: Image 4
Supply: Table 22
Supply: Table 23
Supply: Table 24
Supply: Table 25
Supply: Table 26
Supply: Table 27
Provincial Chinese alumina refineries’ weighted average cash cost position 2017
Provincial Chinese alumina refineries’ weighted average cash cost position 2018
Supply: Table 28
Supply: Table 29
Supply: Table 30
Supply: Table 31
European primary aluminium consumption (Mt and year-on year % growth)
European demand for automotive sheet
European car production