Global aluminium long-term outlook Q3 2019 Report

Commodity Market Report 26 September 2019

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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below

What’s the key takeaway in our latest quarterly aluminium outlook report?

A sharp slowdown in global economic activity, escalating trade tensions and rising geopolitical risks will keep annual average LME aluminium prices below US$1900/t out to 2023. Out to 2030, we expect prices to trend upwards.

Why buy this report?

Get answers to all your questions about the global aluminium market, including:

How will global warming and decarbonisation impact the aluminium industry?
Will rising scrap availability affect the level of investment in new smelting capacity?
Are Chinese semis exports here to stay, or will they go away?
As the dynamic between the China and rest of the world changes, where are the other emerging aluminium production hotspots?

The report includes a full set of data and charts, including this one, tracking changes in aluminium production capacity and demand for the last 30 years, and providing forecasts out to 2040. Scroll down to see the complete table of contents.

A chart showing changes in global aluminium production capacity and demand for the last 30 years, and providing forecasts out to 2040.

Report summary

The aluminium metal market service long term outlook (LTO) is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals out to 2040. Our latest assessment of primary aluminium market fundamentals points to a deficit of 1 Mt in 2019. Despite what appears, on paper, to be a price supportive balance, the LME price has been on a downtrend throughout 2019. The official cash price has lost 9% of its value since it peaked in March. Beyond 2019, we forecast the market to be in surplus out to 2022. The dynamic between the China and rest of the world balance is changing. We expect China to move into deficit on modest output growth while the world ex-China will swing to a surplus over the next 3 years. Further out the aluminium industry will face the twin challenges of climate change and how to deal with rising availability of scrap.

Aluminium market outlook
Alumina market outlook
Seaborne bauxite market outlook
- Main risks around our base case aluminium market outlook
Long term aluminium prices
Long-term alumina prices
- Changes to consumption forecasts since Q2 2019
Forecasts by region
- Asia
- China
- Asia ex-China
Europe
- North America
- United States
- Project Classification
Smelter production and capacity
- Summary
- Global smelter production and capacity 2018-2040
- Africa
- North America
- Latin America
- Middle East
- Asia
- Europe
- 3 more item(s)...
Refinery production and capacity
- Summary
- Global refinery production and capacity 2018-2040
- Africa
- North America
- Latin America and the Caribbean
- Middle East
- Asia
- India
- 5 more item(s)...
Bauxite production
- Regional focus
- Africa
- Latin America
- North America
- Middle East
- Asia
- Other Asia
- Europe
- 2 more item(s)...

Tables and charts

This report includes the following images and tables:

Global supply-demand balance, LME cash prices and stocks in days of consumption
China swings into deficit in 2019
Elevated days of consumption in world ex-China points to lower requirement for new capacity over the medium term