Global aluminium long-term outlook Q3 2020
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Table of contents
-
Aluminium market outlook
- Long-run aluminium prices
-
Alumina market outlook
- Long-run alumina prices
-
Bauxite market outlook
- Main risks around our base case aluminium market outlook
- Scenario analysis
- A path to greener aluminium
- Summary
- Changes to consumption forecasts since Q2 2020
-
Forecasts by region
- China
- Asia ex-China
- Europe
- North America
- United States
- Project Classification
- Supply disruptions
- Market-driven adjustment
-
Smelter production and capacity
- Summary
- Global smelter production and capacity 2019-2040
- Asia
- China
- India
- Indonesia
- Malaysia
- Europe
- Russia and Caspian
- Oceania
-
Refinery production and capacity
- Summary
- Global refinery production and capacity 2019-2040
- Africa
- Asia
- India
- Indonesia
- China
- Europe
-
Bauxite production
- Africa
- Asia (excl. China)
- China
- Latin America and the Caribbean
- Oceania
- Forecasting methodology
- Rationale, risks and IRR methodology
- Assumptions used to construct incentive prices
- Risks around the incentive price
-
Bauxite pricing
- Global smelter production and capability 2019-2040
- Global refinery production and capability 2019-2040
- Global bauxite production, demand and regional balances 2019-2040
- Regional demand tables
Tables and charts
This report includes 83 images and tables including:
- Global aluminium balance and prices
- Primary aluminium demand and capacity, 2010-2040, Mtpa
- Stock days of consumption and price
- Global supply-demand balance
- Metal prices, cash costs and aluminium stocks
- Global alumina balance and prices
- Stock days and price
- Smelter grade alumina balance
- Alumina demand and capacity (95% utilisation), 2010-2040, Mtpa
- Global seaborne bauxite balance and prices
- Seaborne supply and demand, Mt (dry)
- Quality-adjusted weighted average fob prices for low temperature bauxite, 2020-2040
- Time charter rates, 2010-2030, US$/day
- Global metallurgical bauxite supply (Mt)
- Global metallurgical bauxite requirement (Mt)
- Global primary aluminium consumption by region 2019-2024, 2025, 2030, 2040 (Mt)
- China primary aluminium consumption 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (Mt)
- African primary aluminium consumption 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- Asian primary aluminium consumption 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- European primary aluminium consumption 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- Latin America primary aluminium consumption 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- Middle East primary aluminium consumption 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- North America primary aluminium consumption 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- Russia primary aluminium consumption 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- Aluminium incentive price, long run operating cost and capital intensity, US$/t
- Incentive price set at US$2100/t (real 2020 $)
- Average LME aluminium cash prices, 1991-2040 and incentive price (US$/t)
- Alumina incentive price, long run operating cost and capital intensity, US$/t
- Alumina incentive price set at US$350/t (real 2020 $)
- Spot alumina prices, 1991-2040
- Base, high and low price scenarios (real US$/t)
- Global smelting power mix, 1990-2020
- Scope 1 & 2 carbon intensity, 1990-2020
- Global primary aluminium consumption (Mt)
- Changes to primary aluminium consumption since Q2 2020 (Mt)
- Global primary consumption set to peak at 78 Mt in 2029
- Greater scrap collection, processing and use will support future secondary consumption
- Main changes to primary aluminium consumption forecast Q2 2020 vs Q3 2020 (kt)
- Rising secondary offtake will support total aluminium consumption per capita at 35 kg by 2040
- Total demand split by end-use sectors
- Total consumption by product form
- Non-residential construction to provide support to aluminium consumption to 2026
- European capacity and production of aluminium automotive sheet
- US consumption per end-use sector
- US capacity and production of aluminium automotive sheet
- Supply and demand for high-silicon scrap in the automotive sector
- Global capacity utilisation
- Global aluminium production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (Mt)
- China greenfield aluminium projects
- Global alumina production 2019-2023, 2025, 2035 and 2040 (Mt)
- Aditya alumina refinery capital expenditure
- New southern-based projects, ktpa
- Guinea bauxite production expansion by mine/project status, 2010-2040
- Provincial distribution of China’s imported bauxite demand, 2019-2040 (Mt)
- Global aluminium production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (Mt)
- Africa aluminium production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- North America aluminium production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- Latin America aluminium production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- Middle East aluminium production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- Asia aluminium production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- Europe aluminium production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- Russia and Caspian aluminium production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- Oceania aluminium production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- Global alumina production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (Mt)
- Africa alumina production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- North America alumina production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- Latin America alumina production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- Middle East alumina production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- Asia alumina production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- Europe alumina production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- Russia and Caspian alumina production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- Oceania alumina production 2019-2024, 2025, 2030 and 2040 (kt)
- Global metallurgical bauxite supply, 2019-2024, 2025, 2030, 2040 (Mt)
- Global metallurgical bauxite demand, 2019-2024, 2025, 2030, 2040 (Mt)
- Africa bauxite supply, demand and balance, 2019-2024, 2025, 2030, 2040 (Mt)
- North America bauxite supply, demand and regional balance, 2019-2024, 2025, 2030, 2040 (Mt)
- Latin America bauxite supply, demand and regional balance, 2019-2024, 2025, 2030, 2040 (Mt)
- Middle East bauxite supply, demand and regional balance, 2019-2024, 2025, 2030, 2040 (Mt)
- Asia bauxite supply, demand and regional balance, 2019-2024, 2025, 2030, 2040 (Mt)
- Europe bauxite supply, demand and regional balance, 2019-2024, 2025, 2030, 2040 (Mt)
- Russia and Caspian bauxite supply, demand and regional balance, 2019-2024, 2025, 2030, 2040 (Mt)
- Oceania bauxite supply, demand and regional balance, 2019-2024, 2025, 2030, 2040 (Mt)
- Global seaborne bauxite balance and prices (Mt)
What's included
This report contains:
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