Commodity Market Report

Global aluminium long-term outlook Q4 2018

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What’s the key takeaway of this year’s report?

The aluminium market continues to be buffeted by turbulence. Escalating trade tensions and a more protectionist global trading environment over the medium term pose a major risk for the global economy and for aluminium demand. Any sharp deceleration in economic activity would tip the aluminium market into a large surplus.

 

Why buy this report?
Get answers to all your questions including:

  • How China’s metal supply constraints will impact the global aluminium market over the next 10 years.
  • Who are the real winners and losers from growth in aluminium demand?
  • Where will the next generation of refinery projects will come from and at what incentive price.

China base capacity estimate 2018

20 December 2018

Global aluminium long-term outlook Q4 2018

Report summary

The aluminium metal market service long term outlook (LTO) is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of aluminium  supply and demand fundamentals out to 2040. Trade, tariffs and sanctions have been the major drivers of the aluminium market during the first six months in 2018. The balance of risk points to some solution being found to keep Rusal in the market. However, we are now in the midst of what seems to be a global trade war where initial rhetoric has now escalated into action. What began as US tariffs on aluminium and steel under Section 232 has blown out to cover a wide range of products, some of which are aluminium intensive. This suggests a volatile pricing environment and heightened risk of a sharp deceleration in global economic activity which could derail our steady state metal demand outlook.

Table of contents

    • What’s changed?
    • Demand update
    • Supply update
    • Supply-demand balances update

Tables and charts

No table or charts specified

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Demand analysis aluminium LTO Q4 2018.xls

    XLS 891.50 KB

  • Document

    Demand main changes aluminium LTO Q4 2018.xls

    XLS 284.00 KB

  • Document

    Production rankings aluminium LTO Q4 2018.xls

    XLS 564.00 KB

  • Document

    Smelter analysis aluminium LTO Q4 2018.xls

    XLS 1015.50 KB

  • Document

    Supply main changes aluminium LTO Q4 2018.xls

    XLS 628.50 KB

  • Document

    Refinery analysis aluminium LTO Q4 2018.xls

    XLS 683.00 KB

  • Document

    Mine analysis aluminium LTO Q4 2018.xls

    XLS 362.00 KB

  • Document

    Market balance and prices aluminium LTO Q4 2018.xls

    XLS 300.50 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium long-term outlook Q4 2018.pdf

    PDF 1.57 MB

  • Document

    Data Tables Q4 2018.pdf

    PDF 1.07 MB

  • Document

    Global aluminium long-term outlook Q4 2018

    ZIP 2.26 MB

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