Commodity Market Report

Global aluminium short-term outlook April 2021

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The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. The official cash LME price punched effortlessly through US$2300/t in mid-April. Since then prices have been testing the US$2400/t level. Meanwhile, premia across all major benchmark regions are hitting all-time highs as consumers continue to replenish low inventory levels and fulfil rising order books amid logistical constraints. Concerns over the near-term trajectory for primary metal supply, particularly in China, has also added to positive investor sentiment towards aluminium. In the absence of any pullback in investment fund buying, we expect prices to settle above the US$2400/t in the very short-term.

Table of contents

  • China
  • Asia ex-China
  • Europe
  • North America
  • Alumina Market Developments

Tables and charts

This report includes 30 images and tables including:

  • ShFE prices move above RMB 18,000/t as stocks fall in April
  • Stimulus policies still supporting growth in investment activity
  • NBS and Caixin PMIs diverge, but manufacturing growth remains healthy
  • Overall property market activity stays firm ..
  • .. But some leading indicators slowed compared to Q1 2019
  • Japanese production of semis
  • Chinese exports of aluminium semis to Vietnam
  • US shipments of flat-rolled products
  • US shipments of extrusions
  • US shipments of automotive sheet
  • Summary of March production, kt
  • Global annualised output rates
  • China’s smelter capacity increases in 2021, ktpa
  • Changes in aluminium production estimates since the last month, (kt)
  • Spot alumina price, US$/t
  • China alumina imports (kt)
  • World ex-China alumina balances, China imports and spot prices, 2020-2023, (kt)
  • Chinese alumina refinery cuts and restarts in Q2
  • World ex-China smelter grade alumina balance
  • China smelter grade alumina balance
  • Changes in global SGA production estimates since the last month, (kt)
  • World ex-China alumina regions
  • Price forecasts and global quarterly aluminium supply/demand balance – (kt)
  • Global aluminium prices and premia
  • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global secondary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global quarterly alumina production (kt) - including non-metallurgical production but excluding adjustments
  • Global quarterly primary aluminium production (kt) - excluding adjustments
  • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook April 2021

    PDF 1.31 MB