Global aluminium short-term outlook August 2021 Report

Commodity Market Report 31 August 2021

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Report summary

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. The official LME cash price moved decisively above US$2700/t in late August, driven by a slew of supply disruptions in China and strong offtake. With market sentiment focused on supply constraints, a tight physical market and record premia prices simply shrugged off weak economic activity data coming out of China. Against this background we forecast a market in deficit this year.

China
Asia ex-China
Europe
North America
Alumina Market Developments

Tables and charts

This report includes 26 images and tables including:

Manufacturing activity slows in early H2
Special purpose bond issuance lagging against target
Infrastructure investment growth flattening

Construction activity slowing despite surge in completions
Chinese exports of aluminium semis to the EU
US shipments of flat-rolled products
Summary of July production, kt
Global annualised output rates
Capacity cuts at Chinese aluminium smelters so far this year, ktpa
Reported overproduction by smelters in Changji, Xinjiang province
Changes in aluminium production estimates since the last month, (kt)
Atlantic alumina market deficit increases
Jamaica alumina exports
World ex-China alumina balances, China imports and spot prices, 2020-2023, (kt)
World ex-China smelter grade alumina balance
China smelter grade alumina balance
Changes in global SGA production estimates since the last month, (kt)
World ex-China alumina regions
Price forecasts and global quarterly aluminium supply/demand balance – (kt)
Global aluminium prices and premia
Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
Global secondary aluminium consumption (kt)
Global quarterly alumina production (kt) - including non-metallurgical production but excluding adjustments
Global quarterly primary aluminium production (kt) - excluding adjustments
Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)