Commodity Market Report

Global aluminium short-term outlook August 2021

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The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. The official LME cash price moved decisively above US$2700/t in late August, driven by a slew of supply disruptions in China and strong offtake. With market sentiment focused on supply constraints, a tight physical market and record premia prices simply shrugged off weak economic activity data coming out of China. Against this background we forecast a market in deficit this year.

Table of contents

  • China
  • Asia ex-China
  • Europe
  • North America
  • Alumina Market Developments

Tables and charts

This report includes the following images and tables:

  • Manufacturing activity slows in early H2
  • Special purpose bond issuance lagging against target
  • Infrastructure investment growth flattening
  • Construction activity slowing despite surge in completions
  • Chinese exports of aluminium semis to the EU
  • US shipments of flat-rolled products
  • Summary of July production, kt
  • Global annualised output rates
  • Capacity cuts at Chinese aluminium smelters so far this year, ktpa
  • Reported overproduction by smelters in Changji, Xinjiang province
  • Changes in aluminium production estimates since the last month, (kt)
  • Atlantic alumina market deficit increases
  • 14 more item(s)...

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook August 2021

    PDF 1.38 MB