Commodity Market Report

Global aluminium short-term outlook December 2018

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21 December 2018

Global aluminium short-term outlook December 2018

Report summary

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. Aluminium prices consolidated lower during December, weighed down by weak economic data from China, strength in the US dollar and an increase in LME deliveries caused by backwardation in December-January spreads. The LME price came under renewed downward pressure on 20 December, following the US Treasury Department’s announcement that sanctions against UC Rusal would be removed within 30 days. Despite broad market expectations that the US government would end Rusal sanctions, the announcement seems to have caught the aluminium market by surprise.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Asia ex-China
    • India
    • Europe
    • United States
    • Summary of November production, kt
    • Changes in aluminium production estimates since November, (kt)
    • Changes in global SGA production estimates since November, (kt)

Tables and charts

This report includes 25 images and tables including:

  • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Indexed base metal prices
  • Global balance swings into deficit in 2018/2019
  • Global aluminium premia
  • Russian exports of aluminium
  • India imports of plate, sheet and strip
  • EU28 exports of flat rolled products
  • Chinese exports of semis to the EU
  • US exports of cars
  • US imports of PSS and foil
  • Production of flat-rolled products in North America
  • Supply: Table 1
  • China output increases in November
  • Supply: Table 2
  • China alumina supply
  • Supply: Image 2
  • Supply: Table 4
  • Supply: Table 5
  • Price forecasts and world quarterly supply/demand balance – (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global alumina production (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium production (kt)
  • Aluminium stock and premia (kt)
  • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Data tables aluminium STO December 2018.xls

    XLS 565.00 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook December 2018

    PDF 1.46 MB

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook December 2018

    ZIP 1.60 MB

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