Commodity Market Report
Global aluminium short-term outlook February 2019
Report summary
The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. LME price found support at US$1850/t in late February. Our fundamental outlook remains supportive for prices to move higher from what has been a weak start to 2019. Since hitting an official month low of US$1825/t in mid-February, prices have gradually moved higher on a number of positive market developments. We detect a change in investor sentiment, albeit tentative. Nevertheless, the near term outlook remains clouded by concerns over the impact of Brexit on the wider European economy against the background of weaker business and consumer confidence.
Table of contents
- China
-
Asia ex-China
- Japan
- Europe
-
North America
- US
- Alumina Market Developments
Tables and charts
This report includes 24 images and tables including:
- Significant fall in Caixin manufacturing PMI in January
- Real estate investment held up well through 2018
- Comparison of drum and press filters
- World ex-China alumina balances, China imports and Spot prices, 2017-2021, (kt)
- Alumina market outlook
- Short-term alumina price outlook and risks
- Cost considerations
- Indonesia alumina exports
- Changes in global SGA production estimates since January, (kt)
- China refinery capacity additions
- Price forecasts and world quarterly supply/demand balance – (kt)
- Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
- Global alumina production (kt)
- Global primary aluminium production (kt)
- Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
- Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
- Japanese production of semis
- European exports of PSS and foil to the US
- US shipments of rolled products
- US shipments of extrusions
- World ex-China output declines further
- Summary of January production, kt
- China smelter cuts
- Changes in aluminium production estimates since January, (kt)
What's included
This report contains:
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