Commodity Market Report
Global aluminium short-term outlook February 2023
Report summary
The rebound in the official LME cash price fizzled out as rising exchange stocks and a stronger US dollar dampened investor enthusiasm for the light metal. This was in contrast to January when the macroeconomic narrative was positive. A weaker US dollar index, a dovish US Fed, a less severe than expected slowdown in the European economy and China’s reopening drove the price from an early month low of US$2225/t to over US$2600/t by month end. This changed in February as some of the earlier tailwinds became headwinds, with growing pessimism over an immediate recovery in Chinese metal demand and a rebound in the US dollar index. Prices shed US$300/t during the month to below US$2300/t at the time of writing.
Table of contents
- China
-
Asia ex-China
- Japan
- Europe
- North America
- Alumina Market Developments
Tables and charts
This report includes 27 images and tables including:
- Sharp rise in the NBS PMI
- Chinese semis exports to EU hit record high in 2022
- Sharp drop in German semis output
- US and Canada shipments extruded products
- Russian primary aluminium exports to the US
- Summary of January production, kt
- US aluminium capacity
- Global monthly output (annualised)
- Nearly 40% of Yunnan’s capacity to suspend after two consecutive rounds of production cuts
- China smelter capacity change expectation in 2023, ktpa
- Changes in aluminium production estimates since the last month, (kt)
- Spot alumina price
- Alcoa Kwinana gas consumption
- World ex-China alumina balances, China imports and spot prices, 2022-2025, (kt)
- World ex-China alumina balance
- China smelter grade alumina balance
- Changes in global SGA production estimates since the last month, (kt)
- World ex-China alumina regions
- Price forecasts and global quarterly aluminium supply/demand balance – (kt)
- Global aluminium prices and premia
- Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
- Global secondary aluminium consumption (kt)
- Global quarterly alumina production (kt) - including non-metallurgical production but excluding adjustments
- Global quarterly primary aluminium production (kt) - excluding adjustments
- Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
- Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
- Japan domestic shipments of rolled and extruded products
What's included
This report contains:
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