Commodity Market Report
Global aluminium short-term outlook February 2023
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
The rebound in the official LME cash price fizzled out as rising exchange stocks and a stronger US dollar dampened investor enthusiasm for the light metal. This was in contrast to January when the macroeconomic narrative was positive. A weaker US dollar index, a dovish US Fed, a less severe than expected slowdown in the European economy and China’s reopening drove the price from an early month low of US$2225/t to over US$2600/t by month end. This changed in February as some of the earlier tailwinds became headwinds, with growing pessimism over an immediate recovery in Chinese metal demand and a rebound in the US dollar index. Prices shed US$300/t during the month to below US$2300/t at the time of writing.
Table of contents
- China
-
Asia ex-China
- Japan
- Europe
- North America
- Alumina Market Developments
Tables and charts
This report includes 27 images and tables including:
- Sharp rise in the NBS PMI
- Chinese semis exports to EU hit record high in 2022
- Sharp drop in German semis output
- US and Canada shipments extruded products
- Russian primary aluminium exports to the US
- Summary of January production, kt
- US aluminium capacity
- Global monthly output (annualised)
- Nearly 40% of Yunnan’s capacity to suspend after two consecutive rounds of production cuts
- China smelter capacity change expectation in 2023, ktpa
- Changes in aluminium production estimates since the last month, (kt)
- Spot alumina price
- Alcoa Kwinana gas consumption
- World ex-China alumina balances, China imports and spot prices, 2022-2025, (kt)
- World ex-China alumina balance
- China smelter grade alumina balance
- Changes in global SGA production estimates since the last month, (kt)
- World ex-China alumina regions
- Price forecasts and global quarterly aluminium supply/demand balance – (kt)
- Global aluminium prices and premia
- Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
- Global secondary aluminium consumption (kt)
- Global quarterly alumina production (kt) - including non-metallurgical production but excluding adjustments
- Global quarterly primary aluminium production (kt) - excluding adjustments
- Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
- Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
- Japan domestic shipments of rolled and extruded products
What's included
This report contains:
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