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Commodity Market Report

Global aluminium short-term outlook February 2023

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28 February 2023

Global aluminium short-term outlook February 2023

Report summary

The rebound in the official LME cash price fizzled out as rising exchange stocks and a stronger US dollar dampened investor enthusiasm for the light metal. This was in contrast to January when the macroeconomic narrative was positive. A weaker US dollar index, a dovish US Fed, a less severe than expected slowdown in the European economy and China’s reopening drove the price from an early month low of US$2225/t to over US$2600/t by month end. This changed in February as some of the earlier tailwinds became headwinds, with growing pessimism over an immediate recovery in Chinese metal demand and a rebound in the US dollar index. Prices shed US$300/t during the month to below US$2300/t at the time of writing.

Table of contents

  • China
    • Japan
  • Europe
  • North America
  • Alumina Market Developments

Tables and charts

This report includes 27 images and tables including:

  • Sharp rise in the NBS PMI
  • Chinese semis exports to EU hit record high in 2022
  • Sharp drop in German semis output
  • US and Canada shipments extruded products
  • Russian primary aluminium exports to the US
  • Summary of January production, kt
  • US aluminium capacity
  • Global monthly output (annualised)
  • Nearly 40% of Yunnan’s capacity to suspend after two consecutive rounds of production cuts
  • China smelter capacity change expectation in 2023, ktpa
  • Changes in aluminium production estimates since the last month, (kt)
  • Spot alumina price
  • Alcoa Kwinana gas consumption
  • World ex-China alumina balances, China imports and spot prices, 2022-2025, (kt)
  • World ex-China alumina balance
  • China smelter grade alumina balance
  • Changes in global SGA production estimates since the last month, (kt)
  • World ex-China alumina regions
  • Price forecasts and global quarterly aluminium supply/demand balance – (kt)
  • Global aluminium prices and premia
  • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global secondary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global quarterly alumina production (kt) - including non-metallurgical production but excluding adjustments
  • Global quarterly primary aluminium production (kt) - excluding adjustments
  • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Japan domestic shipments of rolled and extruded products

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook February 2023

    PDF 1.12 MB