Global aluminium short-term outlook January 2021

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. With LME prices hovering around the US$2000/t level and steady demand conditions, there is little incentive for smelters to put the brake on output. Indeed, previously announced supply curtailments have been reversed, leaving 2021 with another year of a market sizable surplus. Meanwhile, we expect a bumpy ride for the aluminium price, buffeted between rising concerns over the roll-out of vaccine and a possible loss of investor interest in aluminium.