Commodity Market Report

Global aluminium short-term outlook January 2023

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China’s abrupt U-turn on Covid restrictions and a slightly brighter near-term outlook for the European economy dominated metals market sentiment in January. The bearishness seen in the market in the final week of December quickly dissipated and giving way to a turnaround in sentiment as China added detail to its exit from lockdowns. Expectations of a recovery in economic activity and better demand growth drove the official LME cash price from a month low of US$2242/t on 4 January to US$2605/t on 25 January before pulling back slightly at the time of writing. At the same time, data from Europe suggested that the slowdown in economic activity was not as bad as had been initially feared.

Table of contents

  • China
    • Japan
  • Europe
  • North America
  • Alumina Market Developments

Tables and charts

This report includes 34 images and tables including:

  • Retail sales improve on easing Covid restrictions
  • Manufacturing activity slows as China lifts Covid restrictions
  • Property sector activity ends 2022 with a whimper
  • All eyes on infrastructure investment in 2023
  • Turkish imports of primary aluminium from Iran and Russia
  • Chinese PSS exports to EU collapse
  • Turkish semis exports to EU take-off
  • German semis output tumbles in Q4.
  • US and Canada shipments of rolled products
  • Summary of December production, kt
  • Latin America smelter plans
  • European power prices
  • Norway and Sweden power prices
  • Global monthly output (annualised)
  • Power load and aluminium capacity of Guizhou smelters
  • Changes in aluminium production estimates since the last month, (kt)
  • Alcoa Kwinana gas consumption
  • Spot alumina price
  • Western Australian refineries' gas consumption
  • World ex-China alumina balances, China imports and spot prices, 2022-2025, (kt)
  • China's new alumina capacity in 2022 and 2023, ktpa
  • World ex-China alumina balance
  • China smelter grade alumina balance
  • Changes in global SGA production estimates since the last month, (kt)
  • World ex-China alumina regions
  • Price forecasts and global quarterly aluminium supply/demand balance – (kt)
  • Global aluminium prices and premia
  • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global secondary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global quarterly alumina production (kt) - including non-metallurgical production but excluding adjustments
  • Global quarterly primary aluminium production (kt) - excluding adjustments
  • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Japan domestic shipments of rolled and extruded products

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook January 2023

    PDF 1.23 MB