Commodity Market Report

Global aluminium short-term outlook July 2018

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01 August 2018

Global aluminium short-term outlook July 2018

Report summary

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. July was another busy month with heightened price and spread volatility and lower than expected smelter output in both China and outside. A ratcheting up of rhetoric and action in the current global trade war also weighed heavily on investor sentiment. With the market in a risk-off mode, LME prices broke through a number of key support levels during the month, moving the price to below the $2100/t level by month- end. Prices have also been under pressure from the softer stance being taken by the US Treasury on the Rusal sanction, though we suspect that much of this was already built into the price. We expect the market to remain on edge in the run up to the Rusal 5 August deadline for investors to divest holdings.

Table of contents

  • China
  • Japan
  • South Korea
    • Summary of June production, kt
    • Rest of World alumina balances, China imports and Spot prices, 2017-2020, (kt)
    • Changes in global SGA production estimates since June, (kt)

Tables and charts

This report includes 30 images and tables including:

  • China economic activity slowing
  • Infrastructure investment continues to tumble
  • Mixed picture for China's property sector
  • Automotive output and sales weaken in June
  • Japanese exports of cars
  • Japanese trade in cars with the EU
  • Japanese imports of flat-rolled products
  • Korean imports of PSS
  • Chinese export arbitrage of semis to the EU
  • EU imports of semis from China
  • US imports of semis
  • Norway alumina imports and requirement
  • Chinese alumina exports
  • Spot alumina price FOB Australia, US$/t
  • Iran alumina imports
  • Alumina refining cuts
  • Lvliang alumina refineries that need to retrofit coal fired units
  • Price forecasts and world quarterly supply/demand balance – (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global alumina production (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium production (kt)
  • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook July 2018

    PDF 1.27 MB