Commodity Market Report

Global aluminium short-term outlook July 2023

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The LME price remained under pressure during July as bearish sentiment dominated trading activity. Chinese economic growth remains sluggish while the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank hiked their interest rates by a quarter point amid mixed economic backdrops. The key German economy stagnated in Q2 reflecting weak factory order books, high inflation and tepid consumer spending. In contrast, US consumer spending remains resilient while inflation is on a downward trajectory. We see little reason for the price to stage a sustained rally any time soon, given slowing demand across the major markets and rising output in China. Much will depend on what happens to buying activity once the summer is over. However, early indications are not promising with buyers already looking to shift 2023 volumes into Q1 2024 against an uncertain setting over the near-term end-use demand outlook.

Table of contents

  • China
    • Japan
  • Europe
  • North America
  • Alumina Market Developments

Tables and charts

This report includes 27 images and tables including:

  • Investment slowing
  • Manufacturing activity on the back foot
  • Contraction in property starts and sales accelerates
  • US non-residential construction holding up
  • Summary of June production, kt
  • World ex-China capacity additions
  • World ex-China output, ktpd
  • Restarts in Yunnan smelters, ktpa
  • Changes in aluminium production estimates since the last month, (kt)
  • Spot alumina price
  • Chalco gallium production (tonnes)
  • Gallium price FOB China USD/kg
  • Estimated gallium capacity at alumina refineries
  • World ex-China alumina balances, China imports and spot prices, 2022-2025, (kt)
  • World ex-China alumina balance
  • China smelter grade alumina balance
  • Changes in global SGA production estimates since the last month, (kt)
  • World ex-China alumina regions
  • Price forecasts and global quarterly aluminium supply/demand balance – (kt)
  • Global aluminium prices and premia
  • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global secondary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global quarterly alumina production (kt) - including non-metallurgical production but excluding adjustments
  • Global quarterly primary aluminium production (kt) - excluding adjustments
  • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Production of rolled and extruded products

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook July 2023

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