Global aluminium short-term outlook June 2019

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. Our latest calculations for the global primary aluminium market balance continues to show a deficit in excess of 1 Mt for 2019. We forecast the market to remain tight over the 2020-2021 period with days of consumption falling to levels that should trigger a sustained upward price response. However, the risk to our near term market balance is shifting towards a lower market shortfall. Demand growth is slowing across all major consuming regions while output growth looks set to accelerate over the remainder of 2019, particularly in China.